原木期货日报-20251124

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Last week, log futures maintained a low - level oscillation, and spot prices declined. The supply side saw a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. Demand remained resilient. The current valuation of the futures was relatively low, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures. In general, under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures and Spot Prices - On November 21st, the main LG2601 contract of log futures closed at 768.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 3.5 yuan per cubic meter. The prices of some other specifications of radiata pine logs decreased, while the prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was also 750 yuan per cubic meter [2][3] Import Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 21st was 7.113 yuan, and the import theoretical cost (calculated with a 15% over - length) was 811.02 yuan, showing little change compared with the previous day [2] Supply - In October, the port shipment volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, a 13.99% increase from September. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 17.39% to 54. From November 17th - 23rd, 2025, the pre - arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 13 ships, a 30% increase from the previous week, and the arrival volume was about 46.5 million cubic meters, a 48% increase [2][3] Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 295 million cubic meters, a 0.68% increase from the previous week. Shandong's inventory increased by 2.04% to 195.4 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's inventory increased by 1.46% [2][3] Demand - As of November 14th, the daily average log out - bound volume was 6.56 million cubic meters, a 1% decrease from the previous week. Demand decreased month - on - month [3]