《能源化工》日报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings were provided in the reports [1][3][5][6][7][9][11][12] 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - Natural rubber market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. If raw material supply is smooth, rubber prices are expected to weaken; if supply is disrupted, prices may range from 15,000 - 15,500 [1] Ester Industry - PX is expected to be range - bound at high levels in the short term, with a tight supply - demand outlook in the medium term. PTA's TA01 may oscillate between 4,500 - 4,800 in the short term. Ethylene glycol is expected to be range - bound at low levels. Short - fiber prices have limited upward drivers, and bottle - chip prices will follow the cost trend [3] Polyolefin Industry - The 01 contracts of LLDPE and PP are under pressure due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [5] Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash has a bearish supply - demand outlook, and short - selling opportunities are recommended after price rebounds. Glass prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is suggested [6] Crude Oil Industry - The crude oil supply - demand pattern remains weak. Short - term support for Brent crude is at $60 per barrel, and geopolitical developments in Russia and Ukraine should be monitored [7] Methanol Industry - The methanol market is under pressure due to high inventories. The current trading logic is "weak reality", and the inventory issue in the 01 contract remains unresolved [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene is expected to have limited rebound space in the short term, and short - selling opportunities are recommended for BZ2603. Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and changes in its production facilities and export volume should be monitored [11] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry - Spot Prices and Basis: Most rubber spot prices declined on November 21, with the basis of whole milk rubber dropping by 22.50% [1] - Monthly Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 14.29%, while the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads increased [1] - Fundamental Data: Thailand's and Vietnam's rubber production decreased in September, while India's and China's increased. Tire production and export volume decreased in October [1] - Inventory Changes: Bonded area and futures warehouse inventories increased, while the outbound rate of dry rubber in Qingdao decreased [1] Ester Industry - Upstream Prices: Crude oil and naphtha prices declined, while ethylene prices remained stable [3] - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: CFR China PX prices decreased by 1.1% [3] - PTA - Related Prices and Spreads: PTA spot and futures prices declined, and the basis was repaired [3] - MEG - Related Prices and Spreads: MEG prices declined, and the basis decreased [3] - Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows: Most polyester product prices and cash flows declined [3] Polyolefin Industry - Futures Prices and Spreads: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 prices declined, and spreads changed [5] - Spot Prices and Basis: Most polyolefin spot prices declined, and the basis of some products increased [5] - Inventory and Operating Rates: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, and some operating rates changed [5] Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Glass - Related Prices and Spreads: Glass prices in some regions declined, and the 01 basis decreased [6] - Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads: Soda ash prices were stable, and the 01 basis decreased [6] - Supply and Inventory: Soda ash production and some inventory decreased [6] - Real Estate Data: Real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas all declined [6] Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil Prices and Spreads: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices declined, and spreads changed [7] - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: Most refined oil prices and spreads declined [7] - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: Most refined oil crack spreads declined [7] Methanol Industry - Methanol Prices and Spreads: Methanol futures prices declined, and the basis increased [9] - Inventory: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [9] - Operating Rates: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene - Related Prices and Spreads: Pure benzene prices declined, and the basis increased [11] - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads: Styrene prices declined, and the basis increased [11] - Inventory and Operating Rates: Pure benzene port inventory increased, and styrene port inventory decreased. Some operating rates changed [11] PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads: PVC and caustic soda futures prices declined, and spreads changed [12] - Supply and Demand: Caustic soda and PVC supply and demand have certain pressures, and demand is weak [12] - Inventory: Some caustic soda and PVC inventories increased or decreased [12]