Group 1: Oil Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - Palm oil: The Malaysian palm oil market is under pressure due to potential production growth and weak exports. Dalian palm oil futures are also weak, with short - term support levels to be tested. There is a risk of further decline if the bearish factors persist [1]. - Soybean oil: The market is dragged by the potential negative impact of the US biodiesel policy and uncertain US soybean exports. Downstream demand is limited, but the oil - mill profit provides some support for the basis price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Price Changes: On November 21, compared with November 20, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade soybean oil decreased by 1.17% to 8470 yuan, and the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 0.41% to 8190 yuan. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil decreased by 2.31% to 8470 yuan, and the futures price of P2601 decreased by 1.11% to 8550 yuan. The spot price of Jiangsu - grade rapeseed oil increased by 0.99% to 10170 yuan, and the futures price of OI601 increased by 0.38% to 9816 yuan [1]. - Spread Changes: The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 100% to 0, and the 2601 contract spread increased by 4.99% to - 722. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread increased by 13.33% to 1700, and the 2601 contract spread increased by 4.57% to 1626 [1]. Group 2: Meal Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The recent strong US soybean crushing data supports the US soybean price, but the market has fully priced in the uncertainty of China's soybean procurement. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the supply of soybean meal is abundant. The futures price has limited downward space but lacks the momentum to rise. It is expected to fluctuate widely [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Price Changes: On November 21, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 3000 yuan, and the futures price of M2601 decreased by 0.17% to 3012 yuan. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 0.83% to 2420 yuan, and the futures price of RM2601 increased by 0.79% to 2431 yuan [3]. - Spread Changes: The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread decreased by 3.33% to 580, and the 2601 contract spread decreased by 3.97% to 581 [3]. Group 3: Live Hogs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The market supply has recovered, and the price has turned weak again. Although the demand is expected to increase in the short - term due to cold weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the market is not optimistic about the medium - term price. The strategy of 3 - 7 reverse spread can be continued [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Price Changes: On November 21, the futures price of live hogs 2605 decreased by 0.67% to 11860 yuan/ton, and the futures price of 2601 decreased by 0.79% to 11350 yuan/ton. The spot price in Henan decreased by 0.43% to 11700 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Hebei decreased by 0.85% to 11650 yuan/ton [5]. - Indicator Changes: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.07% to 201586 heads, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100% to 0 yuan, and the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 18.37% to - 136 yuan/head [5]. Group 4: Corn and Corn Starch Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The current spot price of corn is stable and slightly strong due to farmers' reluctance to sell, limited logistics in the Northeast, and government procurement support. However, the price increase is limited due to the expected selling pressure after the harvest and the shrinking profit of deep - processing enterprises. The corn price will fluctuate with the supply rhythm [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Price Changes: On November 21, the futures price of corn 2601 increased by 1.25% to 2195 yuan/ton, and the futures price of corn starch 2601 increased by 1.58% to 2512 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit of corn increased by 25.64% to 40 yuan, and the import profit increased by 3.22% to 325 yuan [8]. - Indicator Changes: The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 16.54% to 318, and the warehouse - receipt quantity of corn decreased by 0.83% to 68764 [8]. Group 5: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The global sugar market is in a relatively calm state. The new sugar in Guangxi has been launched, and the futures price is weak. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Price Changes: On November 21, the futures price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.24% to 5353 yuan/ton, and the futures price of 2605 decreased by 0.34% to 5302 yuan/ton. The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.54% to 5480 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.36% to 5470 yuan/ton [12]. - Industry Indicator Changes: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1048 million tons. The industrial inventory in the whole country decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons [12]. Group 6: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - The market demand for eggs is weak, and there is a risk of price decline in some areas. However, due to the price approaching the feed cost line and farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices, the decline space is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Price Changes: On November 21, the futures price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 1.77% to 2934 yuan/500KG, and the futures price of the 01 - contract decreased by 1.67% to 3184 yuan/500KG. The egg - chicken price decreased by 3.57% to 2.70 yuan/feather, and the culled - chicken price decreased by 3.96% to 3.88 yuan/jin [15]. - Indicator Changes: The egg - feed ratio increased by 2.56% to 2.40, and the breeding profit increased by 13.05% to - 23.06 yuan/feather [15]. Group 7: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the documents. Core View - Globally, the cotton supply is abundant, and the impact of factors affecting the US cotton harvest on production is limited. In China, the high output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season brings hedging pressure, but the firm basis and resilient downstream demand provide some support. The cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalog - Price Changes: On November 21, the futures price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.22% to 13445 yuan/ton, and the futures price of 2601 decreased by 0.04% to 13460 yuan/ton. The spot price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton increased by 0.05% to 14571 yuan/ton [17]. - Industry Indicator Changes: The commercial inventory increased by 24.2% to 363.97 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 4.9% to 93.14 million tons. The cotton export volume decreased by 0.3% to - 1685.60 million tons [17].
《农产品》日报-20251124
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-24 06:00