白糖期货周报：震荡走弱-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International aspect: NFCSF estimates that India's total new - sugar production will be 35 million tons in the new season, with 3.5 million tons used for ethanol production. Brazil is approaching the end of the harvest, and the supply is in a loose pattern. The previous negative factors have been fully priced in, and the raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents per pound for some time [4]. - Domestic aspect: With the listing of new sugar in Guangxi, the market price is mainly based on the previously pre - sold basis sugar sources, with prices significantly lower than old sugar, leading to a weakening of futures prices. The futures price remains weak, and the basis sugar price drops, creating a weak market sentiment. Traders are more likely to wait and see, and procurement is mainly based on demand. The market is expected to remain in a weak and fluctuating pattern next week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - ICE raw sugar futures: The weakening of the Brazilian real put pressure on raw sugar prices. As the Brazilian harvest season is ending and the northern hemisphere's pressing progress is accelerating, the supply outlook of major producing countries in the 25/26 season is good, and the expectation of a bumper harvest has put pressure on sugar prices. The expected increase in the supply surplus and the weakening of energy prices, along with good weather in major producing areas, also affected the price [11]. - Zhengzhou sugar futures: The strong trend of raw sugar and lower - than - expected sugar production in Guangxi initially supported the price. Later, the loose overseas supply outlook in the 25/26 season led to a decline in raw sugar prices, increasing the expectation of domestic imports. After that, raw sugar stopped falling and stabilized, domestic negative factors were digested, and the overall bulk commodity atmosphere was strong. Finally, the weak trend of raw sugar and the suppression of beet warrants led to a price decline. The price approaching the sugar - making cost, lower - than - expected domestic sugar production increase, and faster clearance of old sugar stocks also influenced the price [14]. 3.2 Fundamental Data Analysis - Brazil: - In the first half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region was 34.037 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons (0.3%). The ATR of sugarcane was 158.78 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.54 kg/ton. Ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 240 million liters (1.17%). Sugar production was 2.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons (1.25%). The cumulative sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 318,000 tons (0.89%) [22]. - The sugar - making ratio in the first half of October was 48.24%, a year - on - year increase of 0.91%. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 52.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.84%. The current price of hydrous ethanol in the central - southern region of Brazil converted to sugar is 16.5 cents per pound, and the spot price of raw sugar is 14.8 cents per pound, with the price difference between sugar and ethanol narrowing [27]. - As of the week of November 12, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 69, down from 81 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 2.6571 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 402,700 tons (13.16%), including 2.3995 million tons of high - grade raw sugar (VHP). Brazil exported 1.5582 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 155,800 tons, a 13% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of 178,400 tons in November last year [33]. - India: The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) estimates that the net sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season will be 30.95 million tons. The total sugar production (before deducting the amount used for ethanol production) is expected to be 34.35 million tons, and after deducting the estimated 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production, the net sugar production is expected to reach 30.95 million tons [40]. - Thailand: In 2024, the price of sugarcane remained high, while the price of cassava was at a multi - year low, which may lead more cassava growers to switch to sugarcane cultivation. In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area in Thailand is expected to expand by about 3%. Institutions estimate that the sugarcane harvest in Thailand in the 2025/26 season will be about 105 - 110 million tons, a 14% - 19% increase compared to last year's 92.2 million tons. The remaining increase in production comes from the improvement of yield. With better rainfall in 2025 compared to 2024, Thailand's sugar production is expected to reach about 11.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10% [48]. - Domestic situation: - As of the end of September 2025, the total sugar production in the current sugar - making season in China was 11.162 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons (12%), including 9.597 million tons of cane sugar and 1.565 million tons of beet sugar. The cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 870,000 tons (9.1%), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%. Among them, 8.94 million tons of cane sugar were sold, with a sales rate of 93.1%, and 1.54 million tons of beet sugar were sold, with a sales rate of 98.4% [53]. - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 213,200 tons. From January to October 2025, China imported 3.9054 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 473,700 tons (13.8%) [86]. - In the period from November 13 to November 20, the price in the Guangxi production area was maintained in the range of 5,430 - 5,500 yuan/ton, the price in the Yunnan production area was maintained in the range of 5,400 - 5,590 yuan/ton, the port price was about 5,800 - 5,850 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of processed sugar was about 5,800 - 5,850 yuan/ton [5].