Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply and demand of BR are not strongly supported, and the cost side is difficult to maintain an upward trend. It is expected that the upside of BR will face pressure. Specific strategies include maintaining a short-selling mindset for BR2601 near 10,800 and implementing a strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on BR2601 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory BR Weekly - Market Overview: The price of butadiene, the cost side, rebounded after falling to the lowest level of the year. Some buyers entered the market, and the short - term upward trend attracted some downstream "bottom - fishing" behavior. However, the decline of natural rubber and commodities in the second half of the week dragged down BR, causing it to rise first and then fall [5]. - Cost Side - Supply: Zhejiang Petrochemical continued its maintenance, while Zhenhua New Materials' butadiene rubber plant restarted. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,100 tons (+3.88%), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points [5]. - Cost Side - Demand: The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [6]. - Cost Side - Inventory: The factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory changed slightly. As of November 19, the in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,630 tons, and the trader inventory was 4,880 tons [7]. - Cost Side - Valuation: The production profit of butadiene rubber rebounded. The average weekly theoretical production profit of high - cis butadiene rubber was 786.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 134.6 yuan/ton. The average price difference between butadiene rubber and Thai mixed rubber was - 4,070 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 176 yuan/ton [9]. Butadiene - Production: In 2025, from January to October, the domestic butadiene production increased by 15.5% year - on - year. In the current week, the production was 115,600 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons (+1.76%) from the previous period. The increase was mainly due to the new production capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical [10][14]. - Price: The domestic butadiene market fluctuated upward. After the price fell to the lowest level of the year, some buyers entered the market. The cost pressure of butadiene decreased slightly, and the profit of the C4 extraction process increased. In the Asian market, the price fell and then stabilized [20]. - Import and Export: From January to October 2025, the domestic butadiene imports increased by 39.1% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 80.6% year - on - year [22]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory of domestic butadiene increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 17.99%. As of November 20, the port inventory was 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from the previous period [28]. Butadiene Rubber - Production: From January to October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production increased by 27% year - on - year. Zhenhua New Materials' plant restarted, and the capacity utilization rate increased. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,100 tons (+3.88%), and the capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points [31][34]. - Price: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rose first and then fell, with a price range of 10,000 - 10,800 yuan/ton. The production profit rebounded, and the average weekly theoretical production profit of high - cis butadiene rubber was 786.4 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 134.6 yuan/ton [38]. - Import and Export: From January to October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber imports increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and exports increased by 33.5% year - on - year [40]. - Inventory: The domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous period (+2.24%). As of November 19, the in - factory inventory was 26,630 tons, and the trader inventory was 4,880 tons [47]. Tires - Production: In October 2025, the production of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 14.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.16%. The production of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 5.48% and a year - on - year increase of 17.84%. The tire exports in October decreased by 8.2% year - on - year [49]. - Inventory: The inventory of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased this week. As of November 20, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises were 45.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 days and a year - on - year increase of 7.69 days. The average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises were 40.24 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.69 days and a year - on - year decrease of 0.57 days [49]. - Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [51]. Automobiles - EU Market: In September 2025, the sales of EU passenger cars increased by 10% year - on - year to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles. The market share of pure - electric vehicles increased, and the share of gasoline and diesel vehicles decreased [56]. - Chinese Market - Overall: In October 2025, the production and sales of Chinese automobiles increased by more than 10% year - on - year. The production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October, the production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.2% and 12.4% [59]. - Chinese Market - Segments: In October, the production and sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all increased year - on - year. The new - energy vehicle sales penetration rate reached 51.6% in October and 46.7% from January to October [63]. - Chinese Market - Heavy Trucks: In October 2025, the sales of heavy trucks exceeded 100,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 60%. The consecutive growth trend extended to "seven consecutive increases" [68].
合成橡胶周报-20251124
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-24 09:08