Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to be loose with new capacity and restarted plants, and the demand support is limited due to some downstream loss - making products cutting production. The cost - end support is weak, and the rebound space is restricted, with a possible short - term adjustment under the drag of oil prices [5][8]. - For styrene, the supply is limited with some plants increasing load and some under maintenance. The demand support is limited due to high inventory and profit pressure of some downstream products. Although the short - term supply - demand expectation improves, the rebound space is restricted due to profit repair, weakening demand expectation, and weak cost - end support [9][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Cost - Under the pressure of OPEC+ continuous production increase and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. With more negative factors in the crude oil market recently, such as the US promoting the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement negotiation and the increasing uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation next month, oil prices are under pressure. Short - term Brent crude oil is concerned about the $60/barrel support, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical dynamics [4]. Supply and Demand - Supply: There are plant restarts and new capacity included recently. Although some plants reduced their loads, the supply remains loose. The output of petroleum benzene this cycle is 44.67 tons (- 0.76 tons), and the capacity utilization rate is 76.67% (- 1.31%). The benzene hydrogenation plant operating rate is 57.75% (+ 3.2%), with an output of 7.58 tons (+ 0.42 tons) [5]. - Demand: The downstream operating rates show mixed trends. The styrene operating rate is 68.95% (- 0.3%), the phenol operating rate is 79% (+ 11.4%), the caprolactam operating rate is 88.24% (+ 2.2%), and the aniline operating rate is 75.68% (- 4.5%) [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, treat BZ2603 as short - biased on rallies. - Arbitrage: The EB03 - BZ03 spread is around 1122 (+ 28), and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. Valuation - Neutral to low. Due to the repeated speculation of gasoline - blending demand, the pure benzene price rebounded slightly, but the weak fundamental expectation and weak oil - price expectation limited the increase. The BZN has been repaired to some extent, expanding from 100 yuan/ton last week to around 112 yuan/ton [8]. 2025 Production Plan - Multiple enterprises in different provinces have pure benzene and its downstream production plans in 2025, including enterprises like Yulong Petrochemical, ExxonMobil, etc. The planned new capacity of pure benzene is 128 tons/year, and the new capacity of downstream products is about 238 tons/year [13][14]. October - December 2025 Device Dynamics - Many plants have planned shutdowns for maintenance from October to December 2025, with a total planned shutdown capacity of 212 tons. The net supply of domestic pure benzene产业链 devices decreases by about 11.4 tons, and the net demand decreases by about 17.2 tons, showing inventory accumulation [16][17]. Styrene Supply - With the repair of industry profits, some plants increased their loads. Last week, the overall styrene output was 34.29 tons (- 0.15 tons), and the capacity utilization rate was 68.95% (- 0.3%). This week, one plant in East China restarted, and one plant each in Northeast, East, and South China adjusted their loads, resulting in a slight output decrease [9]. Demand - The consumption of styrene by the three major downstream products is 26.69 tons (+ 0.9 tons). The capacity utilization rates of EPS, PS, and ABS all increased. As of November 20, the EPS capacity utilization rate is 56.27% (month - on - month + 4.64%), the PS capacity utilization rate is 55.9% (month - on - month + 0.5%), and the ABS capacity utilization rate is 72.4% (month - on - month + 0.6%) [9][77]. Strategy - Unilateral: Treat EB01 as range - bound. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines for now [10]. Valuation - Neutral to low. The supply - demand situation of styrene has improved. Driven by overseas gasoline - blending speculation and exports, styrene first rose and then fell, and the industry cash flow has been slightly repaired. The non - integrated cash flow has rebounded from around - 106 yuan/ton last week to around 9 yuan/ton [11]. Import and Export - Under the expectation of overseas plant maintenance, styrene exports are expected to increase in November. China is gradually changing from a net importer of styrene in the past five years to a net exporter [63][67]. Inventory - The port inventory of styrene has decreased. The downstream 3S high inventory reflects the large demand resistance in further transmission to the terminal and also restricts the increase of loads [68][86]. Downstream - The weekly operating rate of downstream products has generally increased slightly, but the downstream profits have been compressed, and the downstream inventory is at a relatively high level on a month - on - month basis [73][78][83]. Terminal - Domestic demand support is limited, as shown by the data of domestic and export sales of home appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines [88].
纯苯：苯乙烯周报：供需预期偏弱且油价支撑有限，纯苯反弹承压-20251124
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-24 10:03