瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251124

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 24, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5630, rising 0.50%. The inventory has rebounded rapidly, the output has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and the inventory has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end increased by 330,000 tons, and the iron - water demand has a seasonal decline overall. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 24, the silicon - iron 2603 contract was reported at 5456, rising 0.04%. The weakening of coal has led to a correction in alloys. Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand replenishment, prices have declined, and the inventory in this period has decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,630.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5,456.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holding volume: 718,487.00 lots, down 32,735.00 lots; SF futures contract holding volume: 436,286.00 lots, down 12,267.00 lots [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net holding volume: - 7,574.00 lots, down 181.00 lots; Silicon - iron top 20 net holding volume: - 10,992.00 lots, up 2,577.00 lots [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 62.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: - 14.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 20,797.00 pieces, up 460.00 pieces; SF warehouse receipts: 9,039.00 pieces, up 763.00 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,450.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 0.00 yuan/ton, down 5,500.00 yuan; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5,130.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5,220.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5,515.75 yuan/ton, down 63.25 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 236.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis: - 180.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port: 32.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest China): 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu): 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.263 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 39.13%, down 0.46%; Silicon - iron enterprise operating rate: 33.81%, down 1.03% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 196,910.00 tons, down 2,660.00 tons; Silicon - iron supply: 108,300.00 tons, down 800.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 363,000.00 tons, up 13,500.00 tons; Silicon - iron manufacturer inventory: 73,050.00 tons, down 8,310.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon inventory of national steel mills: 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; Silicon - iron inventory of national steel mills: 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - Manganese - silicon demand of five major steel types: 121,407.00 tons, up 2,818.00 tons; Silicon - iron demand of five major steel types: 19,543.00 tons, up 469.20 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 82.17%, down 0.62%; Blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - Crude steel output: 71.997 million tons, down 1.4931 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Foreign institutions generally predict that China's economy will maintain steady growth in 2026 with policy support. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth rate and real GDP growth rate [2]. - In October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [2]. - In October, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, the first single - month increase exceeding 10% this year [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting, aiming to focus on four aspects: planning, funds, operation, and governance [2]. 3.7 Market Pricing - HeSteel Group's final price for silicon - manganese in November was 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. - HeSteel's tender price for 75B silicon - iron in November was 5,680 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton higher than the previous round [2]. 3.8 Profit Situation - Inner Mongolia's spot profit for manganese - silicon: - 260 yuan/ton; Ningxia's spot profit for manganese - silicon: - 400 yuan/ton [2]. - Inner Mongolia's spot profit for silicon - iron: - 240 yuan/ton; Ningxia's spot profit for silicon - iron: - 470 yuan/ton [2].