Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 24, the JM2601 contract closed at 1096.5, down 1.48%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - situation: the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring coal supply for power generation in 2026, weakening the market's expectations. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the coking coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks. The inventory is at a moderate level, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. - On November 24, the J2601 contract closed at 1632.5, up 0.03%. The fourth round of price increase for coke has been implemented in the spot market. Macro: in October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 236.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.60 million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in the country is 19 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1096.50, down 6.50; J main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1632.50, up 18.00 [2]. - JM futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 859403.00, up 17120.00; J futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 49177.00, down 782.00 [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 JM contracts (daily, lots): - 106865.00, up 6957.00; net open interest of the top 20 J contracts (daily, lots): - 1532.00, up 150.00 [2]. - JM May - January contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 83.00, down 2.50; J May - January contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 149.50, down 14.00 [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts (daily, pieces): 0.00, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts (daily, pieces): 2070.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1000.00, unchanged; Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1885.00, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR, US dollars/wet ton): 162.50, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1670.00, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1570.00, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1770.00, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1780.00, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1670.00, unchanged [2]. - Medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi (daily, yuan/ton): 1610.00, unchanged; J main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 252.50, down 18.00 [2]. - Coking coal ex - factory price in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia: 1380.00, down 20.00; JM main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 513.50, up 6.50 [2]. Upstream Situation - The coking coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants (daily, million tons): 27.60, up 0.20; the coking coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, million tons): 302.80, up 2.00 [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, %): 0.38, unchanged; raw coal output (monthly, million tons): 40675.00, down 475.50 [2]. - Coal and lignite imports (monthly, million tons): 4174.00, down 426.00; average daily raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 193.40, up 1.50 [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly, million tons): 456.90, down 31.30; coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly, million tons): 253.40, down 6.10 [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises (weekly, million tons): 1038.19, down 30.78; total coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises (weekly, million tons): 65.29, up 7.14 [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, million tons): 797.08, up 6.91; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide (weekly, million tons): 622.34, down 0.06 [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises (weekly, days): 12.97, up 0.10; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills (weekly, days): 11.05, down 0.01 [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal imports (monthly, million tons): 1059.32, down 33.04; coke and semi - coke exports (monthly, million tons): 73.00, up 19.00 [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly, million tons): 3975.92, up 279.06; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly, %): 71.71, up 0.07 [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly, yuan/ton): 19.00, up 53.00 [2]. - Coke output (monthly, million tons): 4189.60, down 66.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, %): 82.17, down 0.62; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %): 88.56, down 0.26 [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly, million tons): 7199.70, down 149.31 [2]. Industry News - Foreign institutions generally predict that China's economy will maintain steady growth with policy support in 2026. Morgan Stanley believes that China's economy will have moderate growth in 2026 under moderate easing policies, gradual re - balancing and restrained "anti - involution" measures. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth rate and real GDP growth rate [2]. - In October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [2]. - In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, the first single - month increase of more than 10% this year [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting, emphasizing efforts in planning, funds, operation, and governance to promote urban renewal [2].
瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20251124
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-24 10:38