瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20251124

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,550 in the short - term. As tire companies' device production resumes, their capacity utilization rate may recover this week, but overall demand growth is limited, and production control by enterprises will restrict the increase in capacity utilization [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,395 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10; the position volume of the main contract is 70,323, with a week - on - week increase of 2,076. The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,960 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,450 yuan/ton, down 150 week - on - week; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,450 yuan/ton, down 100; in Shanghai is 10,450 yuan/ton, down 150; and from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, down 100. The basis of synthetic rubber is 105 yuan/ton, down 10 week - on - week [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 62.56 dollars/barrel, down 0.82; WTI crude oil is at 58.06 dollars/barrel, down 0.94. Naphtha CFR Japan is at 573.13 dollars/ton, up 0.13. Northeast Asian ethylene price is 730 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR China butadiene price is 770 dollars/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 7,350 yuan/ton, down 190. The weekly butadiene production capacity is 159,400 tons, up 3,800; the capacity utilization rate is 72.53%, down 0.49 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 39,800 tons, up 10,800. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 54.26%, up 1.01 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of butadiene rubber is 137,600 tons, up 7,200; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 72.64%, up 2.72 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 284 yuan/ton, down 352. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 31,500 tons, up 700; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,630 tons, up 780; the trader's inventory is 4,880 tons, down 90. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.05%, down 3.63 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 62.25%, down 2.25 percentage points. The monthly production of full - steel tires is 12.42 million, down 720,000; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million, down 8.57 million. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 0.69 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.86 days, up 0.5 [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, down 3.63 percentage points week - on - week and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, down 2.25 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. Due to insufficient orders, some enterprises carried out maintenance or reduced production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate [2] - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, up 7,200 tons month - on - month (5.52%) and 24.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, up 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Production and capacity utilization slightly declined in October [2] - As of November 19, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, up 700 tons (2.24%) from the previous period. The cost support of butadiene rubber strengthened slightly, but high - premium offers were difficult to attract buyers, and private price - holding was also difficult to get terminal follow - up. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises changed slightly. After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the domestic butadiene rubber production is expected to increase in the short term, and the inventory of production and trading enterprises is expected to rise slightly [2]