沪铜产业日报-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with an increase in open interest, a spot premium, and a flat basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals indicates that the spot TC index of copper concentrate remains at a low negative level, and the raw material supply is still tight. The high price of copper ore still supports the cost of refined copper. On the supply side, due to the tight supply of copper ore and the concentrated maintenance of some smelters, the production capacity of domestic smelters may be restricted, and the supply of refined copper may decrease. On the demand side, after the decline in the downstream operating rate in October, it only rebounded slightly. Affected by the high copper price, the downstream attitude remains cautious, mostly conducting just - in - time restocking operations. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of reduced supply and temporarily weak demand. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.2, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0779, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility slightly decreased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are contracting. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,080 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,779 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 192,392 lots, up 2,174 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 22,172 lots, up 1,385 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,025 tons, down 2,900 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 6,625 tons, down 2,850 tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 43,816 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,235 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,275 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 50.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 35 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 155 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME copper cash - 3 spread is 1.06 dollars/ton, up 19.95 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,180 yuan/metal ton, down 550 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 76,880 yuan/metal ton, down 550 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.4 million tons, down 6.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 58,690 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,450 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.4 million tons, down 22.8 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 437.807 billion yuan, up 58.231 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7,356.27 billion yuan, up 585.699 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177 million pieces, down 194,236.1 pieces [2] Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 14.43%, down 0.17%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.39%, up 0.01%. The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.67%, down 0.0025%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.2, down 0.0779 [2] Industry News - Fed officials have made intensive statements. Some think there is room for a rate cut in the near future, while others are cautious about a December rate cut and expect further rate cuts in the future. The Passenger Car Association preliminarily estimates that the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in November will reach about 2.25 million units, flat month - on - month and down 8.7% year - on - year, with new - energy vehicle retail sales expected to be about 1.35 million units, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 60% for the first time. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the high - quality development of the integrated circuit industry in three aspects. The US November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 51.9, a 4 - month low; the Services PMI preliminary value is 55, and the Composite PMI preliminary value is 54.8, both at 4 - month highs [2]