燃料油早报-20251124

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking in Singapore weakened rapidly, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then fluctuated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO cracking dropped rapidly. The EW continued to strengthen this week. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore weakened oscillatingly this week, the monthly spread weakened oscillatingly, and the basis strengthened slightly [6]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased, Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased. With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the external market dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week. After the fire at the Al Zour refinery on October 21st, it stopped production, and the Singapore basis has started to rebound recently [7]. - As global residue enters the inventory accumulation cycle, the external cracking is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillating pattern. For FU01, maintain a high - short idea for both domestic and foreign markets, and consider arranging 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [7]. 3. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 366.33 | 359.79 | 351.60 | 354.27 | 342.52 | -11.75 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 415.16 | 411.23 | 401.83 | 401.58 | 392.05 | -9.53 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -6.17 | -6.97 | -7.51 | -7.11 | -7.70 | -0.59 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 707.49 | 732.42 | 724.68 | 705.27 | 674.04 | -31.23 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -292.33 | -321.19 | -322.85 | -303.69 | -281.99 | 21.70 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 31.67 | 33.67 | 34.17 | 31.62 | 28.61 | -3.01 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 48.83 | 51.44 | 50.23 | 47.31 | 49.53 | 2.22 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 362.23 | 355.32 | 354.49 | 352.24 | 348.23 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 367.79 | 360.57 | 362.97 | 354.70 | 352.69 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 449.06 | 448.99 | 446.34 | 437.80 | 427.47 | | Singapore GO M1 | 92.04 | 93.29 | 95.91 | 94.36 | 88.67 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -6.48 | -7.45 | -8.02 | -7.92 | -7.06 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -232.04 | -241.36 | -263.39 | -260.46 | -228.69 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 356.03 | 348.12 | 348.03 | 345.42 | 343.36 | -2.06 | | FOB VLSFO | 449.02 | 448.99 | 446.12 | 438.34 | 427.46 | -10.88 | | 380 Basis | -5.60 | -6.55 | -5.80 | -5.25 | -4.55 | 0.70 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 3.6 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 0.2 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 0.8 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2593 | 2558 | 2560 | 2517 | 2502 | -15 | | FU 05 | 2632 | 2606 | 2609 | 2565 | 2539 | -26 | | FU 09 | 2602 | 2579 | 2578 | 2541 | 2513 | -28 | | FU 01 - 05 | -39 | -48 | -49 | -48 | -37 | 11 | | FU 05 - 09 | 30 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 26 | 2 | | FU 09 - 01 | 9 | 21 | 18 | 24 | 11 | -13 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3236 | 3247 | 3266 | 3139 | 3078 | -61 | | LU 05 | 3221 | 3223 | 3240 | 3145 | 3085 | -60 | | LU 09 | 3220 | 3232 | 3246 | 3160 | 3119 | -41 | | LU 01 - 05 | 15 | 24 | 26 | -6 | -7 | -1 | | LU 05 - 09 | 1 | -9 | -6 | -15 | -34 | -19 | | LU 09 - 01 | -16 | -15 | -20 | 21 | 41 | 20 | [6]