玉米系产业日报-20251124

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For corn, the US report is slightly bearish, with high short - term supply pressure due to the approaching end of the harvest. In the domestic market, the price in the Northeast region is rising due to reduced supply from the grassroots level, but the price - driving force is insufficient. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market is not very active, and the futures price is generally in a strong oscillation, suggesting short - term observation [2]. - For corn starch, with the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate rises, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, and downstream demand is acceptable. The inventory has decreased recently, and the futures price has risen with the corn market, suggesting short - term observation [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2535 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 108473 hands, up 699 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is - 1400 hands [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2220 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 8180 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 67364 hands, down 202 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 315 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 437.75 cents/bushel; the total position is 1596361 contracts, up 46302 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 11046 contracts, down 92353 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2302.06 yuan/ton, down 22.83 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 2031.22 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2560 yuan/ton, 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the basis of the main contract is 25 yuan, down 23 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2503.61 yuan/ton, down 1.06 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 440 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 243 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 36.44 million hectares, 53 million hectares, and 295 million hectares respectively, with changes of 0.55 million hectares, 0, and 0 respectively; the predicted yields are 427.11 million tons, 131 million tons, 7.5 million tons, and 44.3 million tons respectively, with changes of 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 62.8 million tons, down 23.8 million tons; the inventory at northern ports is 134 million tons, up 10 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 272.7 million tons, down 0.8 million tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 110.9 million tons, down 2.4 million tons [2][3]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12780 tons, down 2020 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.31 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 67.29%, up 0.5%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 60.89%, down 2.59% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.72%, down 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.4%, up 0.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.54%, up 5.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.55%, up 5.57% [2]. Industry News - As of November 19, the sown area of Argentina's 2025/26 corn is 37.3% of the total expected area, only 0.7% more than a week ago, lower than 39.4% in the same period last year [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture released a monthly crushing report. In August, the total consumption of US corn was 511 million bushels, up 1% month - on - month but down 4% year - on - year. The US 2025/26 corn yield per acre is estimated to be 186.0 bushels, with a production estimate of 1.6752 billion bushels, slightly lower than the September estimate [2]. Key Points to Focus On - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]