合成橡胶产业日报-20251124

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in the short term, and the inventories of both production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - The cost of cis - butadiene rubber is slightly stronger, but the high - premium offers have difficulty attracting buyers, and the private price - holding strategy also has limited support from the market. The inventory of sample production enterprises has increased, while that of sample trading enterprises has changed slightly [2]. - Last week, tire enterprises had insufficient orders, with some arranging overhauls and others reducing production, which dragged down the capacity utilization rate. As the production of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may show a restorative increase this week, but the overall demand growth is limited, and enterprise production control will restrict the increase [2]. - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,550 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,395 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 10; the position volume of the main contract is 70,323 yuan/ton, up 2,076 [2]. - The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, down 10; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,960 tons, down 20 [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in various regions has decreased, with a range of 100 - 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 105 yuan/ton, down 10 [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 62.56 dollars/barrel, down 0.82; WTI crude oil is 58.06 dollars/barrel, down 0.94. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 730 dollars/ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 573.13 dollars/ton, up 0.13; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 770 dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,350 yuan/ton, down 190 [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.94 million tons/week, up 0.38; the capacity utilization rate is 72.53%, down 0.49 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 39,800 tons, up 10,800; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26%, up 1.01 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.76 million tons, up 0.72; the capacity utilization rate is 72.64%, up 2.72 [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 284 yuan/ton, down 352; the social inventory is 3.15 million tons, up 0.07; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,630 tons, up 780; the trader's inventory is 4,880 tons, down 90 [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.05%, down 3.63; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 62.25%, down 2.25 [2]. - The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1,242 million pieces, down 72; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,168 million pieces, down 857 [2]. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.24 days, up 0.69; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.86 days, up 0.5 [2]. Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 million tons, or 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.15 million tons, an increase of 0.70 million tons from the previous period, or 2.24% [2].