大越期货沥青期货周报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, supply will decrease, cost support will weaken, and the market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The 01 contract declined this week, with an opening price of 3,048 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 3,009 yuan/ton on Friday, representing a weekly decline [5] - Supply Side: In November 2025, the total planned production of asphalt by local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. The national sample enterprises' shipment was 245,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.28%. The sample enterprises' output was 441,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.20%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprises' equipment was 958,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.59%. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [5] - Demand Side: The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt was 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The开工率 of building asphalt was 6.6%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The开工率 of modified asphalt was 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The开工率 of road - modified asphalt was 34%, flat month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The开工率 of waterproofing membranes was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5] - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. Asphalt processing losses increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [6] - Inventory Side: The social inventory was 794,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. The in - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and in - plant inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to accumulate [6] 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [107]