存储市场更新_摩根大通 TMT 会议核心要点-Memory Market Update_ Key takeaways from JPM‘s TMT conference

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for both Samsung Electronics (SEC) and SK Hynix (SKH) [6][26]. Core Insights - The report expresses a constructive outlook on memory stocks, favoring SEC in the near term due to potential valuation catch-up, while SKH is preferred for mid-to-long term investments due to its leadership in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and expectations of a prolonged memory upcycle [6][5]. - Key focus areas include the anticipated capital expenditures (capex) for 2026, with both SEC and SKH indicating significant increases to address memory shortages [3][4]. Summary by Sections Memory Capex and Technology Migration - 2026 memory capex is a critical focus, with SEC and SKH emphasizing disciplined spending to alleviate shortages, with Hynix projecting a 30% capex intensity policy and Samsung expecting substantial growth [3][5]. - Both companies are prioritizing DRAM technology migration over NAND, with SEC planning a significant ramp-up in 1cnm capacity across its fabs [3][4]. DRAM and NAND Developments - Samsung is set to ramp its 1cnm DRAM capacity significantly, while SKH is also accelerating its technology migration, aiming for 1cnm to account for over 50% of its DRAM production by the end of 2026 [3][4]. - In NAND, both companies are cautious about capacity additions, focusing instead on technology upgrades, with Samsung migrating its Xian fab from V6 to V8 technology [4][5]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - The report notes that memory pricing strength is impacting average selling prices (ASP) in smartphones and PCs, with potential cost pressures leading to considerations for ASP hikes by manufacturers [5][6]. - The demand for eSSD is driven by HDD shortages and AI applications, with both companies expecting limited NAND bit growth in the near term [5][6]. Long-Term Agreements (LTA) - Hynix is experiencing an increase in LTA requests, indicating a shift towards longer contract durations, although the report remains cautious about the effectiveness of LTAs in memory cycles [6][5]. Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - SEC and SKH shares have shown positive performance, with SEC up 3% and SKH up 16% over the past month, amidst ongoing discussions about AI growth and market corrections [6][5].