沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The overall outlook for Shanghai nickel is bearish. It is expected to oscillate in a low - level range, and investors are advised to sell on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [2]. - 不锈钢: The stainless - steel market is under downward pressure and is expected to operate weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 沪镍 Daily View - Fundamentals: External prices are rebounding towards the 20 - day moving average. Some production capacities have cut output, leading to tight supply from companies like GEM. Nickel ore prices are firm, sea freight has a slight increase, and the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating ample supply. Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the cost - line center has dropped further. Stainless - steel inventory has a slight increase, and the demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventory is at a high level, and the oversupply situation persists. The new - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 117,750, and the basis is 2,220, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: LME inventory is 253,482 (- 468), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 34,493 (+ 708), which is bearish [2]. - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Conclusion: Shanghai nickel 2601 will oscillate in a low - level range, and investors should sell on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [2]. 不锈钢 Daily View - Fundamentals: The spot stainless - steel price has a slight decline. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, sea freight has a slight increase, nickel - iron prices are falling, the cost line continues to decline, and stainless - steel inventory has a slight increase [4]. - Basis: The average stainless - steel price is 13,275, and the basis is 940, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts are 64,382 (- 542), which is neutral [4]. - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - Conclusion: Stainless - steel 2601 is under downward pressure and will operate weakly [4]. Price Overview - 沪镍: The Shanghai nickel main contract rose from 114,050 on November 21 to 115,530 on November 24, an increase of 1,480. LME nickel rose from 14,620 to 14,730, an increase of 110. Spot prices of various nickel products also increased to varying degrees [11]. - 不锈钢: The stainless - steel main contract rose from 12,290 on November 21 to 12,335 on November 24, an increase of 45. Spot stainless - steel prices were relatively stable, with some showing slight declines [11]. Inventory Situation - 沪镍: As of November 24, LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (- 468), and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 34,493 (+ 708). The total inventory increased by 240 [14]. - 不锈钢: As of November 21, the national stainless - steel inventory was 107.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 million tons. The 300 - series inventory was 65.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 million tons. As of November 24, the futures warehouse receipts were 64,382 (- 542) [18][19]. Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron - Nickel Ore: The prices of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% and Ni0.9% remained unchanged at 57 and 29 US dollars per wet ton respectively from November 21 to November 24. Sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged [21]. - Nickel - Iron: The price of high - nickel wet tons (8 - 12) decreased from 891 to 889.5 yuan per nickel point, while the price of low - nickel wet tons (below 2) remained unchanged at 3,200 yuan per ton [21]. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,461, the scrap - steel production cost is 12,761, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost is 16,148 [23]. Nickel Import Cost The calculated import price is 118,139 yuan per ton [25].