Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - ISO, StoneX, and Czarnikow predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, with estimates of 163, 277, and 740 million tons respectively [4][9][35] - As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production for the 24/25 season was 1.11621 billion tons, and cumulative sugar sales were 1 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6% [4] - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons; imports of syrup and premixes totaled 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4][9] - The sugar futures main contract 01 has recently declined to a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is recommended to partially take profits on short positions [5][9] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season, which is bearish. In 2025, China's sugar imports increased in October, while imports of syrup and premixes decreased. The cumulative sugar production and sales in the 24/25 season are as mentioned above [4] - Basis: The Liuzhou spot price is 5,610 yuan, with a basis of 240 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6] - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [6] - Expectation: The sugar futures main contract 01 has recently declined to a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is recommended to partially take profits on short positions [5][9] 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and demand: Multiple institutions' predictions for the 25/26 season show a global sugar surplus. China's sugar production, sales, and import data for relevant periods are as described above. The tariff on imported syrup has increased since January 2025 [4][9] - Price: The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable. The domestic sugar price range for the 25/26 season is predicted to be 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton [9][37] - Consumption: Domestic consumption is good, and inventory has decreased. The US cola changing its formula to use sucrose is a long - term positive factor [7][9] 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.
白糖早报-20251125
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-25 01:55