Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Date: November 25, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - Tel: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of oils and fats is in a volatile consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and the price is under pressure. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the month - end inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and later it will enter the production - reducing season, so the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8362, the basis is 194, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons before, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract of soybean oil are increasing, which is bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, but later it will enter the production - increasing season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8562, the basis is 112, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons before, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract of palm oil are increasing, which is bullish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8250 - 8650 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10156, the basis is 378, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons before, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract of rapeseed oil are increasing, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Likely Negative Factors: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing; the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5] - Current Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - Imported Soybean Inventory: Report mentions it but no specific data analysis [6] - Soybean Oil Inventory: On September 22, it was 1.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - Soybean Meal Inventory: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [9][10] - Oil Mill Soybean Pressing: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [11][12] - Palm Oil Inventory: On September 22, it was 580,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Rapeseed Oil Inventory: On September 22, it was 560,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - Rapeseed Inventory: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [21][22] - Domestic Total Oil Inventory: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2019 [23][24] Demand - Related - Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [13][14] - Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption: Data presented in graphical form from 2015 - 2025 [15][16]
大越期货油脂早报-20251125
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-11-25 02:07