沪锌期货早报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile trend in the previous trading session, closing with a doji star, with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with a larger increase in short positions. Overall, it was a volatile market with high trading volume. In the short term, the market may weaken. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, which provides strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is declining and operating in the weak area, while the trend indicator is rising, with the strength of long positions decreasing and that of short positions increasing, indicating a stalemate between the two sides. The Shanghai zinc ZN2601 is expected to decline in a volatile manner [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, and consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc sheet production was 10.3632 million tons, and consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons. From January to September, global zinc ore production was 9.9647 million tons, which is a positive factor [2]. - The spot price was 22,470, and the basis was +80, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On November 24, LME zinc inventory increased by 100 tons to 47,425 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,744 to 74,641 tons compared to the previous day, which is a negative factor [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a negative factor [2]. - The main net position was short, and the short positions decreased, which is a negative factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on November 24 - The trading volume of zinc futures on November 24 was 190,745 lots, and the trading value was 2.13195037 billion yuan. The total open interest was 193,287 lots, a decrease of 1,957 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on November 24 - The domestic zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/metal ton; the imported zinc concentrate TC was 80 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [4]. - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 22,420 - 22,520 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 22,230 - 22,330 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,340 - 22,440 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 22,510 - 22,610 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 13 - 24, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in the main markets in China on November 24 was 151,700 tons, a decrease of 10,700 tons compared to November 17 and a decrease of 8,200 tons compared to November 20 [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on November 24 - The total zinc warrants on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on November 24 were 74,641 tons, an increase of 1,744 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on November 24 - The previous day's inventory was 47,325 tons, with 600 tons of warehousing and 500 tons of ex - warehousing. The current inventory was 47,425 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The registered warrants were 44,350 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 3,075 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 6.48% [8]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on November 24 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions increased, with increases ranging from 60 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton [10]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on November 24 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters decreased by 60 yuan/ton [13]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - In October 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 509,600 tons, and the actual production was 524,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%. The planned production in November was 522,300 tons [15]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on November 24 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions decreased, with decreases ranging from 100 yuan/metal ton to 400 yuan/metal ton. The imported zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on November 24 - The total trading volume of zinc futures contracts (zn2601) of member futures companies was 135,976 lots, an increase of 62,090 lots compared to the previous day. The total long positions were 69,110 lots, an increase of 883 lots, and the total short positions were 64,028 lots, an increase of 2,921 lots [18].