芳烃橡胶早报-20251125

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views PTA - Near - term TA device maintenance leads to lower start - up, polyester load increases, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees improve. PX domestic start - up rises, overseas devices reduce load, PXN strengthens. In the future, TA will maintain high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, inventory accumulation slope is low, far - month production is limited, and PX cost pattern is good. Pay attention to opportunities for positive spreads at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. MEG - Near - term domestic oil - based production increases, coal - based has some maintenance and load reduction, overall start - up decreases, overseas device restart is postponed, port inventory accumulates, basis weakens, and coal - based benefits are low. In the future, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, the coal - based benefit is at a low level, and the valuation compression space is limited. Pay attention to short - term selling put opportunities, and the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Near - term device operation is stable, start - up remains at 97.5%, sales improve slightly, and inventory is basically flat. Demand remains stable. In the future, short - term inventory pressure is limited due to high export, but the pattern may weaken in the far - month as downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into production. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [3]. Natural Rubber - The national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level, Thai cup - lump prices are stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Styrene - No overall view is provided in the text, only price data changes are presented [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Price Changes: From November 18 - 24, crude oil price changed by 0.8, PTA spot price increased by 15, and POY 150D/48F price decreased by 35. Naphtha cracking spread, PX processing spread, and PTA processing spread all changed to varying degrees [2]. - Device Changes: Honggang's 2.5 - million - ton device restarted [2]. MEG - Price Changes: From November 18 - 24, MEG outer - disk price increased by 7, inner - disk price increased by 38, and coal - based profit increased by 38 [3]. - Device Changes: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device and Huayi's 200,000 - ton device were under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarted [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price Changes: From November 18 - 24, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained stable, and the profit of short - fiber and pure - polyester yarn changed [3]. - Device Changes: No device changes were reported [3]. Natural Rubber - Price Changes: From November 18 - 24, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber remained stable, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 75, and the price of Thai cup - lump remained stable. Weekly changes also showed different trends [6]. - Spreads and Profits: The spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract, the processing profit of Thai standard rubber, etc., all had corresponding changes [6]. Styrene - Price Changes: From November 18 - 24, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained stable, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) changed, and the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 5 [10]. - Profits: The domestic profit of styrene, EPS, PS, and ABS changed to different extents [10].