大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and the market is affected by emotional fluctuations triggered by news. The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 88,700 - 92,260 yuan/ton [8][10][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 22,130 tons, a 2.71% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 102,584 tons, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,290 tons, a 0.41% week - on - week increase [8] - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 89,670 yuan/ton, a 1.97% daily decrease, with a profit of 1,350 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 93,596 yuan/ton, a 3.56% daily decrease, with a loss of 4,836 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is low. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10] - Fundamentals: Neutral. The basis of the 01 contract was 1,670 yuan/ton on November 24, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The overall inventory decreased by 1.70% week - on - week, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net short position of the main contract decreased, which is bearish [10] - Expectation: In October 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 physical tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October was 23,881 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 27,000 physical tons, a 13.06% increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The 6% concentrate CIF price decreased daily, lower than the historical average, and the demand continued to strengthen [10] - Likely factors: Lithium mica manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, and the month - on - month decline in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile [11] - Negative factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [12] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Prices: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,150 yuan/ton, a 0.16% decrease; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 89,750 yuan/ton, a 0.17% decrease [16] - Registered Warehouse Receipts: There were 26,510 lots, a 1.26% decrease [16] 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Overview - Supply - side: The weekly and monthly production, import, and export data of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products are provided. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in October 2025 was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase; the monthly import volume was 23,880.69 tons, a 21.86% increase [20] - Demand - side: The monthly production, export, and inventory data of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium batteries are provided. For example, the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate in October was 5,476,869 kg, a 77.13% increase; the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate was 102,584 tons, a 2.06% decrease [20] 3.4 Supply - Related Data - Lithium Ore: The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore over the years are presented through charts. The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time, and the production and import volume have also changed [26] - Lithium Carbonate: The weekly and monthly production, import, and capacity data of lithium carbonate are provided. The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has shown different trends, and the import volume has also changed [32] - Lithium Hydroxide: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, export, and import data of lithium hydroxide are provided. The weekly capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and the production and export volume have also changed [39] 3.5 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost - profit data of various lithium compounds such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate are provided. The cost and profit of different raw materials and production methods vary [44][46][49] 3.6 Inventory - The inventory data of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including monthly and weekly inventory by source, are provided. The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has shown different trends over time [51] 3.7 Demand - Related Data - Lithium Batteries: The price, production, export, and inventory data of lithium batteries are provided. The price and production of lithium batteries have changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends [54][57] - Ternary Precursors: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance data of ternary precursors are provided. The price and cost - profit of ternary precursors have changed, and the supply - demand balance has also fluctuated [60][63] - Ternary Materials: The price, cost - profit, production, export, import, and inventory data of ternary materials are provided. The price and cost - profit of ternary materials have changed, and the production, export, import, and inventory have also shown different trends [66][68] - Phosphoric Acid/Phosphoric Acid Lithium Iron: The price, production cost, profit, production, and capacity data of phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate are provided. The price and cost - profit of phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate have changed, and the production and capacity have also shown different trends [70][73] - New Energy Vehicles: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate data of new energy vehicles are provided. The production, sales, and export of new energy vehicles have increased, and the penetration rate has also continued to rise [78][79]