大越期货尿素早报-20251125

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The report analyzes the urea market on November 25, 2025, concluding that the overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, but the improvement in exports boosts the market sentiment. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate have rebounded again, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. On the demand side, agricultural demand has rebounded due to the influence of Northeast China, and industrial demand is mainly based on demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased year-on-year. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the pressure on the supply side has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved compared with the previous period, boosting the market sentiment. The overall domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1640 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 2, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.1%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [4]. - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: For the UR main contract, industrial demand is mainly based on demand, agricultural demand has rebounded, and the improvement in exports compared with the previous period has boosted the market sentiment. The overall domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Positive Factors: Export improvement [5]. - Negative Factors: Domestic supply exceeding demand and new production capacity launch [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - Spot: The spot price of the delivery product is 1640 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1640 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1650 (0), and the FOB China price is 2842 [6]. - Futures: The price of the UR01 contract is 1638 (-16), the UR05 contract is 1711 (-17), and the UR09 contract is 1722 (-12) [6]. - Inventory: The warehouse receipt is 7570 (+387), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.537 million tons (-28,000), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.437 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 100,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show corresponding changes. The import dependence of PP ranges from 10.2% to 19.3%. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].