大越期货燃料油早报-20251125

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the fuel oil industry. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the fuel oil market from multiple aspects, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions. It concludes that the market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and interest rate policies. The fuel oil prices are expected to move in the ranges of 2490 - 2540 for FU2601 and 3020 - 3070 for LU2601. The market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, with supply being influenced by geopolitical risks and demand remaining neutral [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The report presents comprehensive analysis of the fuel oil market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and positions. It also provides expected price ranges for FU2601 and LU2601 [3]. 2. Multi - Air Concerns - Bullish factors: Russian fuel export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks along with sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - Bearish factors: Uncertainty in demand optimism and pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: High - sulfur fuel oil spot demand is mostly weak, with sufficient supply in Singapore in November, potentially pressuring prices in late November and December. The basis shows that the spot is nearly at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 257 barrels to 2344.9 barrels in the week of November 19. The price is below the 20 - day line which is trending down. High - sulfur main positions are short and decreasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing [3]. 4. Spread Data - The report provides data on the basis of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore. The basis of high - sulfur fuel oil is 10 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 47 yuan/ton [3]. 5. Inventory Data - The inventory data shows the changes in Singapore's fuel oil inventory from September 10 to November 19. The inventory in the week of November 19 was 2344.9 barrels, an increase of 257 barrels [8]. Market Data - Futures market: The current prices of FU and LU main contracts are 2500 and 3055 respectively, down 29 and 62 from the previous values, with declines of 1.15% and 1.99%. The basis of FU remained unchanged, while that of LU decreased by 20, a decline of 29.52% [5]. - Spot market: The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils in Zhoushan and Singapore have changed. For example, the price of high - sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan decreased by 11 to 445, a decline of 2.41% [6].