大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251125

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trade sideways today due to an oversupply in the fundamentals, a decline in downstream demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4] - PP is also expected to trade sideways today, with an oversupply in the fundamentals, average downstream demand, and a moderately high industrial inventory [6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US summit, OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, causing oil prices to fall. Agricultural film demand declined, while other films were mainly for essential needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,840 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 47, with a premium ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: PE's comprehensive inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), which is bearish [4] - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract increased, which is bullish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade sideways [4] - Likely Factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may cause oil prices to rebound, and the China-US summit reached a phased easing [5] - Negative Factors: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [5] - Main Logic: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation is bearish. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,380 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 8, with a premium ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [6] - Inventory: PP's comprehensive inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), which is bearish [6] - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [6] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract decreased, but it is still bearish [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to trade sideways [6] - Likely Factors: Similar to LLDPE, new sanctions on Russian oil and a phased easing in China-US relations [7] - Negative Factors: Similar to LLDPE, weaker demand year-on-year and many new production launches in the fourth quarter [7] - Main Logic: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an increasing trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an increasing trend, and the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]