广发期货《黑色》日报-20251125

Group 1: Steel Industry Report's Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400 [1]. Summary by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot in the East China region increased from 3220 to 3240, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract increased from 3274 to 3292 [1]. - Cost and Profit: Steel billet price increased by 30 to 2980, while some costs such as Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost decreased by 22 to 3231. Profits in different regions and varieties also changed. For instance, East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 6 to - 85 [1]. - Production: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 tons (-0.3%), but the output of five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 849.9 tons (1.9%). Rebar production increased by 8.0 to 208.0 tons (4.0%), and hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.3 to 316.0 tons (0.7%) [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 1433.1 tons (-3.0%), rebar inventory decreased by 22.8 to 553.3 tons (-4.0%), and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.4 to 402.1 tons (-2.0%) [1]. - Trading and Demand: Building material trading volume increased by 3.6 to 13.1 (37.9%), the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 33.6 to 894.2 tons (3.9%), rebar apparent demand increased by 14.4 to 230.8 (6.7%), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 10.8 to 324.4 (3.5%) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report's Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Without new macro - drivers, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral trend. The market will oscillate with a bullish bias under the condition of a discounted price on the futures market [5]. Summary by Directory - Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders such as lower powder, PB powder, etc. increased slightly. The basis of 01 contract for different powders decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 5 - 9 spread increased from 25.5 to 27.0 (5.9%) [5]. - Supply: The global shipping volume of iron ore increased by 447.4 to 3516.4 tons (14.6%) on a weekly basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 548.2 to 2817.1 tons (24.2%) [5]. - Demand: The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 49.7 to 6554.9 tons (-0.8%), and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 149.3 to 7199.7 tons (-2.0%) [5]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 74.8 to 9001.2 tons (-0.8%) on a weekly basis. The daily average port clearance volume increased by 3.0 to 329.9 (0.9%) [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report's Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For coke, it is regarded as oscillating with a bearish bias, and the range reference is 1550 - 1700. For coking coal, it is also regarded as oscillating with a bearish bias, and the range reference is 1050 - 1200. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coke and short on coking coal [8]. Summary by Directory - Coke and Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads: Coke 01 contract increased from 1615 to 1633 (1.1%), while coking coal 01 contract decreased from 1103 to 1097 (-0.6%). The basis of different contracts and spreads between contracts also changed. For example, the 01 basis of coke decreased from 21 to - 8, and the J01 - J05 spread increased from - 164 to - 150 [8]. - Supply: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons (-0.5%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.2 tons. The output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased, with raw coal output decreasing by 2.4 to 851.5 tons (-0.3%) and clean coal output decreasing by 1.8 to 433.8 tons (-0.4%) [8]. - Demand: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 tons (-0.3%), and the demand - side coke output also decreased slightly [8]. - Inventory Changes: Coke total inventory increased slightly by 1.3 to 880.6 tons (0.1%). The inventory of various parties such as coking plants, steel mills, and ports changed. For example, the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.1 to 65.3 tons (12.3%). Coking coal inventory also changed, with some parties going through de - stocking and others increasing inventory [8]. - Policy and Market Situation: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the signing and performance supervision of medium - and long - term contracts for thermal coal in 2026. The coking coal spot price started to fall, and the pressure of hedging on the futures market increased [8].