大越期货原油早报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overnight negotiation between the US and Ukraine on the peace agreement is still ongoing. Due to European opposition, some terms have been modified, and it is expected that the agreement will not be reached within the announced time, which partially boosts geopolitical sentiment. Another Federal Reserve governor supports further interest rate cuts, and the positive signal boosts oil prices. Overall, the oil price stabilizes at a low level. SC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 445 - 455, and long - term investors are advised to hold a wait - and - see attitude [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Russia's Tuapse port in the Black Sea has resumed oil product exports after a two - week suspension due to a drone attack, and local refineries have restarted crude oil processing; the US and Ukrainian officials are trying to narrow the differences in the plan to end the Ukraine war; Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the US job market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting. The overall situation is neutral [3] - Basis: On November 24, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.17 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.10 per barrel, with a basis of 34.43 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3] - Inventory: The API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14; the EIA inventory in the week ending November 14 decreased by 3.426 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.603 million barrels; the inventory in the Cushing area decreased by 69,800 barrels in the week ending November 14; as of November 24, the inventory of Shanghai crude oil futures remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels, which is bullish [3] - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3] - Main Position: As of October 7, the long position of WTI crude oil main contract decreased; as of November 18, the long position of Brent crude oil main contract increased, which is bullish [3] 3.2 Recent News - Peace Talks between the US and Ukraine: The US and Ukrainian officials are working hard to bridge the differences in the plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. They have drafted a "refined peace framework" after the Geneva talks. Although details are not disclosed, the dialogue has been cautiously welcomed by some Ukrainian allies. There are still some differences, and no meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents is currently planned [5] - Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut: Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the US job market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting. Future actions depend on a large amount of upcoming data [5] - Crude Oil Purchase by Indian Refinery: India's MRPL has purchased 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude oil for January loading through tender, continuing to avoid Russian oil. Earlier this month, it also purchased 1 million barrels of Basra Medium crude oil for delivery from January 1 to 7 [5] 3.3 Long - and Short - Term Concerns - Bullish Factors: Sanctions against Russia are approaching; OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6] - Bearish Factors: The situation in the Middle East has eased; institutions have a relatively consistent expectation of crude oil oversupply; there may be a meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia [6] - Market Driver: Short - term bearish impacts are exhausted, geopolitical bullish factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - and long - term [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from 62.56 to 62.72, with an increase of 0.16 and a growth rate of 0.26%; WTI crude oil increased from 58.06 to 58.84, with an increase of 0.78 and a growth rate of 1.34%; SC crude oil decreased from 453.0 to 445.6, with a decrease of 7.40 and a decline rate of 1.63%; Oman crude oil increased from 62.67 to 62.68, with an increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.02% [7] - Spot Market: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from 62.50 to 64.10, with an increase of 1.60 and a growth rate of 2.56%; WTI increased from 58.06 to 58.84, with an increase of 0.78 and a growth rate of 1.34%; Oman crude oil increased from 62.98 to 63.17, with an increase of 0.19 and a growth rate of 0.30%; Shengli crude oil decreased from 58.74 to 58.23, with a decrease of 0.51 and a decline rate of 0.87%; Dubai crude oil decreased from 62.97 to 62.66, with a decrease of 0.31 and a decline rate of 0.49% [9] - API Inventory: The API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 4.448 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [3][10] - EIA Inventory: The EIA inventory in the US decreased by 3.426 million barrels in the week ending November 14, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.603 million barrels [3][13] 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of October 7, the net long position was 74,309, a decrease of 28,991 [17] - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: As of November 18, the net long position was 178,364, an increase of 13,497 [19]