大越期货沥青期货早报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - side shows that in November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 26.4262%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week. [8] - The demand - side indicates that the current demand is below the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 24.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, remaining flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 10.587%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 34%, remaining flat month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 34%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage point. [8] - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 453.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1086.84 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.76%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support. [8] - The basis on November 24 shows that the Shandong spot price is 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. [8] - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is 79.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%; the in - plant inventory is 64.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 80 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.57%. Social and in - plant inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing, which is neutral. [8] - The disk shows that MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, which is bearish. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing, which is also bearish. [8] - Overall, due to the recent production cut by refineries, the supply pressure is reduced. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected. The inventory remains flat. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3034 - 3086. [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Fundamentals: Supply - side production shows changes, and demand is below the historical average. Cost - side profit and crude oil trends are analyzed. [8] - Basis: The Shandong spot price and the 01 contract basis on November 24 are presented, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [8] - Inventory: Social, in - plant, and port inventories show different trends of de - stocking and stocking. [8] - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the 01 contract futures price closes below MA20. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing. [8] - Expectation: The asphalt 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3034 - 3086 in the short term. [8] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025. [18][20] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown. [23] - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented. [26] - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are analyzed. [29][30] - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are shown. [34] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is presented. [36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [39] - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is presented. [43] - Supply - Side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is shown. [46] - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is presented. [48] - Output: The historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown. [51] - Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend: The historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are presented. [56] - Local Refinery Asphalt Output: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [58] - 开工率: The historical weekly asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 is presented. [61] - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The historical trend of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is shown. [64] - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented. [67][68] - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown. [71] - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented. [74] - Import and Export Situation - The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are shown, as well as the historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025. [77][80] - Demand - Side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Output: The historical trend of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [83] - Apparent Consumption: The historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is presented. [86] - Downstream Demand - Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment in Highway Construction: The historical trend from 2020 to 2025 is shown. [89] - New Local Special Bond Trend: The historical trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented. [90] - Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year: The historical trend from 2020 to 2024 is shown. [90] - Downstream Machinery Demand: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales are presented. [93][95] - Asphalt开工率 - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率: The historical trend from 2019 to 2025 is shown. [98] - Asphalt开工率 by Use: The historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 are presented. [100] - Downstream开工情况: The historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025 are shown. [102][104] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January to November 2025 are presented, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export, import, and output. [107]