工业硅期货早报-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The main logic of the industrial silicon market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main factors affecting the market include cost increase support, manufacturers' shutdown and production reduction plans, slow post - holiday demand recovery, and strong supply and weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The main risk points are the impact of shutdown, production reduction/maintenance plans, polysilicon inventory destocking, and resumption trends [11][12][13]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 91,000 tons, with no change compared to the previous week. The demand was 80,000 tons, at a low level, with a 4.76% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of crystalline silicon was 271,000 tons, the inventory of silicone was 56,300 tons, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 75,200 tons. The comprehensive operating rate of silicone was 72.18%, with no change compared to the previous week, and lower than the historical average. The cost support in Xinjiang has increased, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Basis: On November 24, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 410 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a bullish trend [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 548,000 tons, a 0.37% week - on - week increase; the sample enterprise inventory was 177,800 tons, a 3.01% week - on - week increase; the main port inventory was 129,000 tons, a 1.57% week - on - week increase, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule has decreased, close to the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,835 - 9,045 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Fundamentals: Last week, the polysilicon production was 27,100 tons, a 1.11% week - on - week increase. The forecasted production schedule for November was 120,100 tons, a 10.37% month - on - month decrease. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has decreased to varying degrees, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support has stabilized, showing a bearish trend [8]. - Basis: On November 24, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1,065 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish trend [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 271,000 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week increase, at a low level compared to the same period in history, showing a neutral trend [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the short position turned to long, showing a bullish trend [8]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the cost support has stabilized. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52,465 - 54,165 yuan/ton [8][9]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview - Industrial Silicon: The report provides the price, basis, inventory, production, and cost - profit data of industrial silicon contracts, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of downstream products such as silicone and aluminum alloy [15][16]. - Polysilicon: The report provides the price, production, inventory, and cost - profit data of polysilicon contracts, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [17]. Other Data and Charts - The report also includes the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, the disk price trends of polysilicon, the inventory, production, and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon, the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon, and the data and trends of downstream products of industrial silicon such as silicone, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [19][22][25]