Report Industry Investment Rating The provided documents do not contain information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping index, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding operation suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: A - share market showed a bottom - rebound, with the TMT sector warming up. The four major stock index futures contracts rose and fell differently, and the basis discount was repaired. Due to the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest - rate cut decision and the market being in a re - pricing adjustment, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The funds were looser, and the Treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term bond market is in a box - shock stage. It is recommended to operate within the range and for short - position investors to speed up the position - shifting pace [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: The voices in the Fed supporting interest - rate cuts increased, and precious metals strengthened. In the medium - long term, the bull market of precious metals will continue, but short - term market fluctuations may intensify. Gold is expected to fluctuate between 4000 - 4150 dollars, and silver is recommended to go long lightly if it rises [7][9][10]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - EC: The spot market is cold, but the SCFIS European line index rose sharply after the market, so it is expected to rise slightly in the short term [11]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The interest - rate cut expectation is uncertain, and the copper price fluctuates narrowly. The medium - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the copper price, and the main contract is recommended to be in the range of 85500 - 86800 [12][15]. - Alumina: The market fluctuates at a low level, and the supply contraction and inventory accumulation slowdown indicate that the market's worst over - supply pressure may be approaching the end. The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 [15][17]. - Aluminum: There is a confrontation between strong expectations and weak reality, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The main contract is recommended to be in the range of 21100 - 21700 [17][19]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price follows the adjustment of the aluminum price, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 20300 - 20900 [19][21]. - Zinc: The supply reduction expectation provides support, and the zinc price fluctuates. The main contract is recommended to be in the range of 22200 - 22800 [22][25]. - Tin: The supply side remains tight, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips [25][29]. - Nickel: The price repairs upward from a low level, driven by upstream production cuts and low valuations. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 116000 - 120000 [29][31]. - Stainless Steel: The price fluctuates weakly, with raw materials under pressure and insufficient demand. The main contract is recommended to be in the range of 12200 - 12600 [33][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market sentiment cools down, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [36][39]. - Polysilicon: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price fluctuates. It is recommended to go long around 50000, and hold or close the sell - put option [40][41]. - Industrial Silicon: The spot price falls, and the futures price fluctuates. The main price is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 9500 [42][44]. Black Metals - Steel: The apparent demand recovers, and the steel price is expected to stabilize. The rebar is recommended to be in the range of 3000 - 3200, and the hot - rolled coil is recommended to be in the range of 3250 - 3400 [44][46]. - Iron Ore: The shipping and arrival increased, the port inventory decreased, and the iron ore price fluctuates upward. The futures price is expected to fluctuate upward under the discount [51][53]. - Coking Coal: The price of coking coal in the origin decreased, and the demand for replenishment was bearish. It is recommended to view it as a weak - side shock, with the range of 1050 - 1150, and recommend the arbitrage of going long on coke and short on coking coal [54][57]. - Coke: After the fourth price increase, there is an expectation of a price cut. It is recommended to view it as a weak - side shock, with the range of 1550 - 1700, and recommend the arbitrage of going long on coke and short on coking coal [58][63]. Agricultural Products - Meal Products: The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the cost side lacks substantial benefits. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market changed, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [64].
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Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-11-25 03:21