燃料油早报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore weakened rapidly, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then oscillated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO crack dropped rapidly. The EW strengthened this week. The 0.5% crack in Singapore weakened oscillatively this week, the monthly spread weakened oscillatively, and the basis strengthened slightly [6]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased. Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased. With the strengthening expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the external market dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week. After the Al Zour refinery caught fire and shut down on October 21st, the Singapore basis has started to rebound recently [7]. - As global residue enters the inventory accumulation cycle, the external crack is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillatory pattern. For FU01, maintain a high - short idea, and consider arranging 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 359.79 | 351.60 | 354.27 | 342.52 | 348.30 | 5.78 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 411.23 | 401.83 | 401.58 | 392.05 | 395.61 | 3.56 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 6.97 | - 7.51 | - 7.11 | - 7.70 | - 7.85 | - 0.15 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 732.42 | 724.68 | 705.27 | 674.04 | 673.82 | - 0.22 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 321.19 | - 322.85 | - 303.69 | - 281.99 | - 278.21 | 3.78 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 33.67 | 34.17 | 31.62 | 28.61 | 26.56 | - 2.05 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 51.44 | 50.23 | 47.31 | 49.53 | 47.31 | - 2.22 | [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 355.32 | 354.49 | 352.24 | 348.23 | 351.28 | 3.05 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 360.57 | 362.97 | 354.70 | 352.69 | 357.09 | 4.40 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 448.99 | 446.34 | 437.80 | 427.47 | 427.09 | - 0.38 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 93.29 | 95.91 | 94.36 | 88.67 | 87.53 | - 1.14 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 7.45 | - 8.02 | - 7.92 | - 7.06 | - 7.38 | - 0.32 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 241.36 | - 263.39 | - 260.46 | - 228.69 | - 220.63 | 8.06 | [4][10] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 348.12 | 348.03 | 345.42 | 343.36 | 344.02 | 0.66 | | FOB VLSFO | 448.99 | 446.12 | 438.34 | 427.46 | 423.62 | - 3.84 | | 380 Basis | - 6.55 | - 5.80 | - 5.25 | - 4.55 | - 4.00 | 0.55 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 5.9 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | - 1.6 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 4.0 | - 2.6 | [5] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2558 | 2560 | 2517 | 2502 | 2512 | 10 | | FU 05 | 2606 | 2609 | 2565 | 2539 | 2554 | 15 | | FU 09 | 2579 | 2578 | 2541 | 2513 | 2520 | 7 | | FU 01 - 05 | - 48 | - 49 | - 48 | - 37 | - 42 | - 5 | | FU 05 - 09 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 26 | 34 | 8 | | FU 09 - 01 | 21 | 18 | 24 | 11 | 8 | - 3 | [5] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/11/18 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/24 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3247 | 3266 | 3139 | 3078 | 3041 | - 37 | | LU 05 | 3223 | 3240 | 3145 | 3085 | 3068 | - 17 | | LU 09 | 3232 | 3246 | 3160 | 3119 | 3108 | - 11 | | LU 01 - 05 | 24 | 26 | - 6 | - 7 | - 27 | - 20 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 9 | - 6 | - 15 | - 34 | - 40 | - 6 | | LU 09 - 01 | - 15 | - 20 | 21 | 41 | 67 | 26 | [6]