《有色》日报-20251125

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large, but considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [3]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure has eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 85,500 - 86,800 [9]. Nickel - The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, the price may fluctuate and recover due to upstream production cuts and low valuations. The medium - term supply surplus still restricts the upside potential. The main contract reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, the cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 12,200 - 12,600 [15][16]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [18]. Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is a pressure for inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price is expected to maintain a weak oscillating adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 86,000 - 90,000 [20]. Polysilicon - Maintain the expectation of high - level range oscillations. For futures, consider going long around 50,000; for options, hold or close sell put positions, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [22]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - Spot Prices and Basis: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices increased by 0.76% and 0.75% respectively. The LME 0 - 3 spread rose by 0.71%. The import loss decreased by 3.21%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [2]. - Fundamentals: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55%, and exports decreased by 15.33%. The average SMM refined tin operating rate increased by 53.23% [2]. - Inventory: SHEF inventory decreased by 0.46%, social inventory increased by 2.83%, SHEF warrants decreased by 0.37%, and LME inventory remained unchanged [3]. Zinc - Prices and Spreads: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices decreased by 0.27%. Some month - to - month spreads decreased. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [7]. - Fundamentals: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85%, imports decreased by 16.94%, and exports increased by 243.79%. The operating rates of some primary processing industries changed slightly [7]. - Inventory: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3.58%, and LME inventory increased by 0.21% [7]. Copper - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper and other copper prices increased slightly. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [9]. - Fundamentals: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62%, and imports decreased by 15.61%. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased [9]. - Inventory: Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.80%, and some other inventories changed slightly [9]. Nickel - Prices and Basis: Prices of various nickel products increased slightly. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 3.38%, and the import loss increased by 5.36% [13]. - Cost: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel decreased by 4.84%, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased by 3.75% [13]. - Supply and Inventory: China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92%, and social inventory decreased by 1.61% [13]. Stainless Steel - Prices and Spreads: The prices of some stainless steel products decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads changed [15]. - Fundamentals: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [15]. - Inventory: 300 - series social inventory and SHFE inventory decreased slightly [15]. Aluminum - Prices and Spreads: SMM A00 aluminum prices decreased by 0.09%. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [17]. - Fundamentals: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39%, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%, imports increased by 0.61%, and exports decreased by 15.18% [17]. - Inventory: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.11%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.37% [17]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices and Spreads: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained stable in most regions. Some month - to - month spreads changed [18]. - Fundamentals: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and that of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06% [18]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.44%, and some daily inventories decreased [18]. Industrial Silicon - Spot Prices and Basis: The prices of various industrial silicon products decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [19]. - Fundamentals: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46%, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang. Exports decreased by 35.82% [19]. - Inventory: Xinjiang factory inventory increased by 4.42%, and social inventory increased by 0.37% [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Prices and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly. Some month - to - month spreads decreased significantly [20]. - Fundamentals: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73%, demand increased by 8.70%, imports increased by 21.86%, and exports increased by 63.05% [20]. - Inventory: Total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90%, downstream inventory decreased by 13.50%, and smelter inventory decreased by 6.03% [20]. Polysilicon - Prices and Spreads: Polysilicon spot prices stabilized with a slight decrease, silicon wafer prices decreased, and component prices increased slightly. The futures price oscillated, and the spread structure was in a backwardation [22]. - Fundamentals: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 1.12%, and monthly production increased by 3.08%. Imports increased by 11.96%, and exports decreased by 27.99% [22]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.50%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.63%. Polysilicon warrants decreased by 3.07% [22].