集运早报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2512 contract is approaching the delivery logic with a neutral valuation and a significant reduction in open interest. The central range in the first week of December is around $2400 - 2500, and the price is expected to stabilize later [3]. - The EC2602 contract has a slightly low - neutral valuation. It's hard to confirm the so - called "no peak season" in the short term. With the late Spring Festival this year, the peak season start is delayed, which is normal. The overall cargo volume on the European route this year is good, which may limit the upside, but no overly pessimistic expectations are given. If the peak - season shipping demand is gradually fulfilled, there may be more upside potential [3]. - For the EC2604 contract, a short - selling strategy on rallies is still recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Quotes - Contract Prices and Changes: The prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts all increased on the day, with increases of 0.33%, 0.80%, 0.79%, 0.61%, 0.94%, and 0.99% respectively. The trading volume and open - interest changes varied among different contracts [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The month - to - month spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 had different day - on - day and week - on - week changes, such as - 3.1 and 5.3 for EC2512 - 2504 respectively [2]. Spot Market Situation - In Week 48, the overall average price of European route spot was $2200 (equivalent to around 1540 points on the futures market). In Week 49, the average price of quotes from different shipping alliances was about $2500 (equivalent to around 1750 points on the futures market). On Monday, OOCL and CMA lowered their quotes to $2530 and $2645 respectively [4]. News - On November 24, the Hamas delegation discussed the Gaza situation with the Egyptian side. Hamas said that Israel's continuous violation of the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip must stop [5]. - On November 25, there was a breakthrough in the US - Ukraine peace talks, but Russia rejected the revised plan. Trump had an optimistic attitude towards the US - Ukraine peace talks [6]. Index Data - European Route Spot Freight Index: The SCFIS (European route) index on November 24 was 1639.37 points, a 20.75% increase from the previous period. The SCF, CCFI, and NCFI had different changes in the latest data, such as a - 3.53% change for SCF [2].