《农产品》日报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil may face further downward pressure due to bearish fundamentals, and there is a risk of a new round of selling in Malaysian palm oil. Dalian palm oil futures are expected to continue to weaken. - CBOT soybeans are in a rebound after overselling, and domestic soybean oil is supported by high - cost imports despite sufficient supply and weak demand [1]. Meal - The market has priced in China's procurement expectations, and the supply - demand of US soybeans remains loose. South American new - crop soybeans have a good planting progress, and the supply pressure continues to be released. Domestic soybean meal is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [2]. Corn - Corn prices are affected by the rhythm of supply. In the short - term, the futures price is strong due to supply - demand mismatch and firm spot prices, but the subsequent selling pressure may limit the increase [5]. Pork - The supply of pigs continues to recover, and the overall supply remains abundant. Although local demand is supported by pickling in the southwest, the spot price is not optimistic. Pig prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [10]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to oscillate around 14 cents per pound. The listing of new sugar in Guangxi has led the futures price to weaken, and the market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation this week [13]. Cotton - Internationally, the global cotton supply is in a loose pattern. Domestically, the high production of Xinjiang cotton brings hedging pressure, but the firm basis and resilient demand support the cotton price. In the short - term, cotton prices may oscillate within a range [14]. Eggs - The demand for eggs is weak, and there is a risk of price decline in some areas. However, prices are near the feed cost line, and the decline space is limited. Egg prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Prices and Basis: Compared with November 21, on November 24, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 1 soybean oil increased by 20 yuan to 8490 yuan; the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 22 yuan to 8168 yuan; the basis increased by 42 yuan to 322 yuan. For palm oil, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree decreased by 40 yuan to 8430 yuan; the futures price of P2601 decreased by 64 yuan to 8486 yuan; the basis increased by 24 yuan to - 56 yuan. For rapeseed oil, the spot price of Jiangsu - grade 3 increased by 20 yuan to 10190 yuan; the futures price of OI601 decreased by 38 yuan to 9778 yuan; the basis increased by 58 yuan to 412 yuan [1]. - Spreads: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 2 yuan to 206 yuan; the palm oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 28 yuan to - 90 yuan; the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 35 yuan to 356 yuan [1]. Meal - Prices and Basis: On November 25, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained at 3000 yuan; the futures price of M2601 decreased by 1 yuan to 3011 yuan; the basis increased by 1 yuan to - 11 yuan. For rapeseed meal, the spot price of Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan to 2440 yuan; the futures price of RM2601 increased by 12 yuan to 2446 yuan; the basis increased by 5 yuan to - 6 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread decreased by 13 yuan to 196 yuan; the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread decreased by 3 yuan to 61 yuan [2]. Corn - Prices and Indexes: On November 25, the futures price of Corn 2601 increased by 25 yuan to 2220 yuan; the basis increased by 5 yuan to 30 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13 yuan to - 44 yuan. For corn starch, the futures price of Corn Starch 2601 increased by 23 yuan to 2535 yuan; the basis decreased by 23 yuan to 25 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 yuan to - 64 yuan [5]. Pork - Futures and Spot Prices: The basis of the main contract decreased by 200 yuan to 150 yuan; the futures price of Live Hogs 2605 increased by 65 yuan to 11925 yuan; the futures price of Live Hogs 2601 increased by 50 yuan to 11400 yuan. Spot prices fluctuated in different regions [10]. - Industry Indicators: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 1173 to 205889; the weekly piglet price increased by 0.3 yuan to 17.5 yuan per kilogram; the monthly number of fertile sows decreased by 30,000 to 40.35 million [10]. Sugar - Futures and Spot Prices: On November 25, the futures price of Sugar 2601 increased by 17 yuan to 5370 yuan; the basis of Nanning decreased by 47 yuan to 131 yuan; the basis of Kunming decreased by 47 yuan to 121 yuan [13]. - Industry Data: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 119.89 million tons to 1.11621 billion tons; the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 88 million tons to 1.048 billion tons; the national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 47.79 million tons to 68.21 million tons [13]. Cotton - Futures and Spot Prices: The futures price of Cotton 2605 increased by 82 yuan to 13530 yuan; the futures price of Cotton 2601 increased by 125 yuan to 13585 yuan; the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 40 yuan to - 55 yuan [14]. - Industry Data: The commercial inventory increased by 70.91 million tons to 363.97 million tons; the industrial inventory increased by 4.32 million tons to 93.14 million tons; the import volume decreased by 1 million tons to 9 million tons [14]. Eggs - Prices and Indexes: The futures price of Egg 12 - contract increased by 16 yuan to 2950 yuan per 500 kg; the futures price of Egg 01 - contract decreased by 26 yuan to 3184 yuan per 500 kg; the basis increased by 43 yuan to - 302 yuan per 500 kg [17]. - Industry Indicators: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks decreased by 0.1 yuan to 2.7 yuan per chick; the price of culled chickens decreased by 0.16 yuan to 3.88 yuan per catty; the egg - feed ratio increased by 0.06 to 2.4 [17].