《能源化工》日报-20251125

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Methanol - The inland market is expected to see a continuous increase in production, with marginal devices in the red. The market sentiment has improved due to some Iranian devices starting to limit gas and stop production, leading to a significant strengthening of the disk, with both price and basis rising. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the time and intensity of gas limitation [1]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rebounded due to the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in December and the ongoing difficulties in Russia - Ukraine negotiations. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and a record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern remains weak. In the short term, Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 66 per barrel, and attention should be paid to the results of the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [5]. Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight reduction in inventory. PE shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with inventory slightly accumulating under the pressure of new production capacity. The 01 contract is still under significant pressure [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has an overall surplus pattern, with reduced production this week and phased inventory reduction at factories. In the medium term, demand is expected to remain rigid, and there may be further pressure on supply - demand without actual production capacity exit or load reduction. Glass has seen a short - term rebound in the market due to the shutdown of some production lines in Hubei, but in the medium - to - long term, demand is expected to decline, and the industry still needs to clear production capacity to solve the surplus problem [9]. Styrene - Pure benzene has new production capacity and device restarts, with overall supply remaining loose. Demand support is limited, and port inventories are rising. In the short term, the price may be adjusted due to the drag of oil prices. Styrene has limited supply and improved downstream procurement, but demand support is expected to be limited. The rebound space is restricted, and the short - term EB01 is expected to fluctuate [10]. Natural Rubber - Supply is supported by cost, but inventory is accumulating seasonally, and terminal demand is weak. It is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation, and attention should be paid to raw material output in the main production areas and macro - level changes [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has supply - demand pressure, with expected weakening prices. PVC has a weak spot market, with supply increasing and demand remaining sluggish. The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a short - term weak supply - demand situation but strong mid - term support. PTA has a short - term tight supply - demand situation but a loose mid - term outlook. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand situation, and bottle - chip has a loose supply - demand pattern [13]. LPG - No clear overall view is provided in the given LPG report, but price and inventory data are presented [15]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price and Spread: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, with the MA15 spread and Taicang basis changing. Regional spreads also showed significant changes. For example, the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 475% [1]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all decreased, with decreases of 2.86%, 4.16%, and 3.91% respectively [1]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates decreased slightly, while overseas enterprise operating rates increased slightly. Downstream, the operating rate of externally - purchased MTO devices remained unchanged, and the formaldehyde operating rate increased [1]. Crude Oil - Price and Spread: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, while SC crude oil prices decreased. Product oil prices and spreads also showed various changes, such as the RBOB price increasing and the ULSD price decreasing [5]. - Product Oil Crack Spreads: Crack spreads of various product oils showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [5]. Polyolefins - Price and Spread: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and other contract prices changed slightly. Spreads such as L15 and PP15 increased [8]. - Inventory: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased to varying degrees [8]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, while PP powder operating rates increased [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Spread: Glass and soda ash futures and spot prices changed, with glass 2601 prices increasing and soda ash 2601 and 2605 prices also rising slightly [9]. - Operating Rates and Production: Soda ash operating rates and weekly production decreased, while the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased slightly [9]. - Inventory: Glass and soda ash inventories showed different trends, with glass warehouse inventories increasing and soda ash factory and delivery warehouse inventories decreasing [9]. Styrene - Upstream Price and Spread: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, and prices of raw materials such as CFR Japan naphtha and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed [10]. - Inventory: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [10]. - Industrial Chain Operating Rates: Operating rates of various links in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. Natural Rubber - Spot Price and Basis: Spot prices of natural rubber such as Yunnan state - owned standard rubber increased, and the full - cream basis also increased [11]. - Fundamentals: Production in major producing countries and regions changed, and tire production, export, and import volumes decreased [11]. - Inventory: Bonded area and futures warehouse inventories of natural rubber increased [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Price and Spread: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices changed, with PVC futures prices increasing and caustic soda prices decreasing [12]. - Supply and Demand: Caustic soda and PVC supply and demand showed different trends, with caustic soda having supply - demand pressure and PVC having an oversupply situation [12]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: Prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed, and cash flows also showed different trends [13]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: CFR China PX prices increased slightly, and various spreads changed [13]. - PTA - Related Prices and Spreads: PTA spot and futures prices increased, and the basis and processing fees changed [13]. - MEG - Related Prices and Spreads: MEG spot and futures prices increased, and the basis and cash flows changed [13]. LPG - Price and Spread: LPG futures prices decreased, and spreads such as PG12 - 01 and PG12 - 02 changed [15]. - Inventory: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio remained stable, while port inventory and storage capacity ratio increased [15]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: Upstream refinery operating rates decreased, and downstream PDH and MTBE operating rates decreased, while the alkylation operating rate increased [15].