原木期货日报-20251125

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, the log futures remained in a low - level oscillation, and the spot price decreased. The supply side saw a continuous increase in arrivals, inventory accumulated, and the market was under significant pressure. Demand continued to show resilience. The current valuation of the futures was relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures. Overall, in the context of a weak fundamental situation, the log futures are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On November 24th, compared with November 21st, the price of log 2601 was 768.0, down 0.5 or - 0.07%; log 2603 was 779.0, up 1.5 or 0.19%; log 2605 was 795.0, up 1.5 or 0.19%. The 01 - 03 spread was - 11.0, down 2.0; the 01 - 05 spread was - 27.0, down 2.0; the 03 - contract basis was - 29.0, down 1.5; the 01 - contract basis was - 18.0, up 0.5 [2]. - Spot Prices: The prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on November 24th compared with November 21st. The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2]. - Import Cost: On November 24th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.106, down 0.01 or 0% compared with November 23rd; the import theoretical cost was 810.19, down 0.83 or 0% [2]. Supply - Monthly Supply: In October, the port shipment volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 24.7 million cubic meters or 13.99% compared with September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54.0, up 8.0 or 17.39% [2]. - Inventory: As of November 21st, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 303 million cubic meters, up 8 million cubic meters or 2.71% compared with November 14th. In Shandong, it was 206.5 million cubic meters, up 11.1 million cubic meters or 5.68%; in Jiangsu, it was 83.18 million cubic meters, down 0.5 million cubic meters or - 0.57% [2][3]. Demand - As of November 21st, the daily average出库 volume of logs in China was 6.44 million cubic meters, down 0.12 million cubic meters or - 2% compared with November 14th. In Shandong, it was 3.59 million cubic meters, down 0.08 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it was 2.36 million cubic meters, down 0.08 million cubic meters [3]. Forecast of Arrivals - From November 24th to November 30th, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 6, 7 less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 54%; the total arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, 20.1 million cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [3].