原油成品油早报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, oil prices closed lower. Significant progress has been made in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Zelensky and Trump will discuss a peace plan next week, with Russia being open to the idea, but no substantial discussions have taken place between Russia and the US yet. The risk premium for gasoline and diesel cracking in Europe and the US has rapidly reversed, and the crude oil monthly spread has declined, with a weekly rebound. Global onshore inventories have increased this week, while the total onshore and offshore inventories have slightly decreased, reaching the highest level since 2020. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories have decreased, while gasoline and diesel inventories have increased. The number of US oil rigs and fracturing operations has risen, and the refinery operating rates in Europe and the US have increased. Recently, there is still room for downward adjustment in US gasoline and European diesel prices. With a supply-demand surplus, a short-selling strategy for crude oil is maintained, with a forecasted Brent price range of $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Short-term attention should be paid to the US's draft plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. [6][9] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Price Data Summary - From November 18 - 24, 2025, WTI crude oil prices fluctuated from $60.74 to $58.84, with a change of $0.78; Brent crude oil prices dropped from $64.89 to $62.22, a decrease of $0.34; Dubai crude oil prices rose from $65.20 to $64.50, with a change of $0.11. Other related oil product prices also showed corresponding fluctuations. [3] 3.2 Daily News - The Tuapse refinery in Russia resumed oil processing on November 21. - After the US imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russian Urals crude oil is being sold to Indian refiners at the lowest price in at least two years, at a discount of $7 per barrel to the Brent crude oil spot price (CIF). Some Indian refiners have changed their stance due to the lower prices and are considering purchasing from non-sanctioned sellers. - The US is preparing to launch a new round of actions related to Venezuela in the coming days. - JPMorgan Chase believes that due to oversupply, Brent crude oil prices could fall to the $30 - $40 per barrel range in 2027. [3][4] 3.3 Inventory Data - According to the EIA report, in the week of November 14, US crude oil exports increased by 1.342 million barrels per day to 4.158 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.028 million barrels to 13.834 million barrels per day. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.426 million barrels to 424 million barrels, a decrease of 0.8%. - The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.641 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the same period last year. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 0.533 million barrels to 410.9 million barrels, an increase of 0.13%. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 5.95 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.728 million barrels per day compared to the previous week. - From November 14 - 20, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories were 10.2331 million tons, a decrease of 1.75%, and diesel inventories were 12.2708 million tons, a decrease of 4.25%. The inventories of major refiners and social entities decreased, while those of local refineries increased. The comprehensive refining profit of major refiners rebounded, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated. [4][5][16]