Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, copper prices first rose and then declined slightly. Downstream consumption remained weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts between copper downstream enterprises was ongoing. The price of 85,000 yuan might become the psychological price for downstream point - pricing. [1] - Aluminum prices decreased slightly. The inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods and strips decreased slightly. The short - term trend might be volatile, and the supply - demand situation was expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten gradually. [2] - Zinc prices fluctuated. The supply of domestic and imported TC was accelerating downward. The demand was seasonally weak. The export window was open, and there was some inventory delivery overseas. The price center might be difficult to decline deeply, and it was recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and the positive arbitrage opportunity of 01 - 03 contracts for the month - spread. [5] - The short - term fundamental situation of nickel was weak. The supply decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to increase. There were continuous disruptions in the Indonesian mining end, and it was recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies. [7][8] - The fundamental situation of stainless steel remained weak. The production increased slightly in October, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory was at a high level. It was recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies. [12] - Lead prices fell. The supply was loose, and the demand was expected to weaken. The supply - demand contradiction was alleviated, and the social inventory began to accumulate. It was expected that lead prices would fluctuate narrowly next week, and it was recommended to operate carefully. [15][16] - Tin prices increased. The supply side was marginally repaired, and there were uncertainties overseas. The demand was mainly rigid. In the short - term, it was recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, it was recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals. [19] - The supply - demand of industrial silicon in Q4 was expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price was expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price was expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle. [22] - The price of lithium carbonate first rose and then fell. The supply side had high price elasticity after disturbances were resolved, and the long - term pattern might change in the next 1 - 2 years if the demand was stable. [24] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 18 to 24, the spot price of Shanghai copper was between 80 - 100, with a change of - 10; the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 119; the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 5,974. [1] - Market Situation: Downstream consumption was weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts was ongoing. The concentrated delivery of LME copper affected the Cash - 3M spread, and the waste copper subsidy policy was slightly relaxed. [1] Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 18 to 24, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 20; the domestic alumina price decreased by 1; the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. [1] - Market Situation: The price of aluminum decreased slightly, the inventory of aluminum ingots was flat, and the short - term trend was volatile. The supply - demand situation was expected to change from loose to tight in 2026. [1][2] Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 18 to 24, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 60; the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 100. [5] - Market Situation: The supply of domestic and imported TC was accelerating downward. The demand was seasonally weak, and the export window was open. [5] Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 18 to 24, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,250; the domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase. [6][7] - Market Situation: The supply decreased slightly, the demand was weak, and there were continuous disruptions in the Indonesian mining end. [7][8] Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 18 to 24, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel also remained stable. [12] - Market Situation: The production increased slightly in October, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, the cost remained stable, and the inventory was at a high level. [12] Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 18 to 24, the lead price decreased; the social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory increased by 2,425. [15][16] - Market Situation: The supply was loose, the demand was expected to weaken, and the supply - demand contradiction was alleviated. [15][16] Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 18 to 24, the tin price center increased; the LME inventory remained unchanged. [19] - Market Situation: The supply side was marginally repaired, and there were uncertainties overseas. The demand was mainly rigid. [19] Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 18 to 24, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan changed slightly, and the basis of 553 in East China and Tianjin decreased; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 854. [22] - Market Situation: The supply - demand in Q4 was expected to be balanced and slightly loose, and the price was expected to fluctuate. [22] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From November 18 to 24, the SMM electric carbon and industrial carbon prices decreased by 150; the basis of the main and near - month contracts increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 338. [24] - Market Situation: The price first rose and then fell. The supply side had high price elasticity after disturbances were resolved, and the long - term pattern might change in the next 1 - 2 years. [24]
有色早报-20251125
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-11-25 05:51