港股市场策略周报-20251125

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a "Beta-style" decline this week, with major indices and style indices falling together, indicating a significant contraction in market risk appetite. The Hang Seng Composite Index, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index fell by -5.37%, -5.09%, and -7.18% respectively [3][15] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with a notable increase in funds adopting a wait-and-see approach, leading to a weak consolidation phase [3][15] Macroeconomic Environment - In October, fiscal revenue showed strong performance, while fiscal expenditure appeared weak, indicating a potential lack of momentum in fiscal policy towards the end of the year. The overall public budget revenue for the first ten months was 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [4][46] - The expectation for a U.S. interest rate cut has increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December approaching 70%. Southbound capital continued to see net inflows, increasing by 55.8% compared to the previous week [4][45] Sector Outlook - The domestic economy is still in a bottoming phase, with weak economic data. Policy focus is expected to be on technological innovation and expanding domestic demand. The market sentiment is cautious, reflecting a phase of high-level corrections [5][46] - The report favors sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, such as new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology. Additionally, low-valuation state-owned enterprises and local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks are also seen as favorable due to their relative independence from the economic cycle and benefits from the interest rate cut [5][46] Buyback Statistics - The buyback market has shown significant activity this week, with 73 companies participating, an increase of 17 from the previous week. The total buyback amount reached 4.87 billion HKD, a substantial increase from the previous week [29][32] - Tencent Holdings led the buyback activity with 2.543 billion HKD, followed by Xiaomi Group with 811 million HKD [29][27] Southbound Capital Statistics - The top net buying companies this week included Xiaomi Group (40.31 billion HKD), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (31.73 billion HKD), and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (20.45 billion HKD) [36] - Conversely, Alibaba (63.35 billion HKD) and other consumer-related stocks saw significant net selling [37]