纯碱、玻璃日报-20251125

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash continues to be in a weak pattern of supply - demand imbalance. Although weekly production and operating rate have declined, the absolute output remains high. With flat shipments, weak supply - demand in downstream float glass, and no improvement in terminal real estate and photovoltaic demand, the cost provides support but high inventory restricts price increase. Short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and medium - long term may be treated with rebound short - selling [8]. - For glass, the spot performance is lower than expected, supply is stable, inventory is high, and demand in the real estate market is weak. However, with the accelerating cold - repair due to declining profits, if about 5000 tons of production lines are cold - repaired by the end of the year, inventory can be reduced. Currently, the glass price is undervalued, and the downward space is limited. Without new market expectations, the downward trend may continue [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 24, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract rebounded slightly. The closing price was 1183 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.02%, with a daily reduction of 58,280 lots [7]. - Soda ash is in a weak supply - demand imbalance. Weekly production and operating rate are down, but absolute output is still high. Downstream float glass has weak supply - demand, and terminal real estate and photovoltaic demand show no improvement. Cost supports the price, but high inventory restricts price increase. Short - term trend is volatile, and medium - long term may be rebound short - selling [8]. Glass - The spot performance is lower than expected, and the impact of concentrated production line shutdowns in Shahe is less than expected. Supply is stable, inventory is high after the holiday, and demand in the real estate market is weak. With declining profits, cold - repair is accelerating. About 5000 tons of production lines are planned for cold - repair by the end of the year. If cold - repaired, inventory can be reduced. Currently, the glass price is undervalued, and the downward trend may continue without new expectations [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, but no specific data analysis is presented in the text [12][16][15]