白糖日报-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Friday, New York raw sugar futures maintained a sideways trend. The main March contract rose 0.75% to 14.77 cents per pound. The main March contract of London ICE white sugar futures rose 1% to $424.10 per ton. The pressure from the start of the sugar - cane crushing season in India and Thailand has been digested, and the market is waiting for the production data of the first half of November in southern Brazil. Raw sugar is mainly in a sideways pattern [7]. - Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar stopped falling and rebounded. The 01 contract closed at 5,370 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan or 0.09%, with an increase of 1,039 contracts in open interest. The price of new domestic sugar has been lowered, with the price in Kunming at 5,500 yuan per ton and the price of processed sugar in East China at 5,790 yuan per ton. In terms of fundamentals, the number of sugar - cane crushing factories in the south is increasing, and the price of new sugar in Kunming has declined. The high virtual - to - real ratio and large discount of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract are unfavorable to short positions, and the entry of long - position funds has driven the rebound [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Futures market data: SR601 closed at 5,370 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan or 0.09%, with an open interest of 417,739 contracts and an increase of 1,039 contracts; SR605 closed at 5,319 yuan per ton, up 6 yuan or 0.11%, with an open interest of 179,121 contracts and an increase of 8,502 contracts; US sugar 03 closed at 14.77 cents per pound, up 0.11 cents or 0.75%, with an open interest of 472,146 contracts and an increase of 1,647 contracts; US sugar 05 closed at 14.28 cents per pound, up 0.09 cents or 0.63%, with an open interest of 184,991 contracts and an increase of 273 contracts [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - In Guangxi, from November 22 - 24, 3 new sugar - cane crushing factories started operation, and 2 are expected to start tomorrow. By the end of November, about 30 sugar - cane crushing factories are expected to be in operation. As of now, 18 sugar - cane crushing factories have started operation in the 2025/2026 crushing season in Guangxi, 26 less than the same period last year. The daily sugar - cane crushing capacity is 129,000 tons, 268,000 tons less than the same period last year [9]. - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 210,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported a total of 3.9 million tons of sugar, an increase of 480,000 tons year - on - year [9]. - The International Sugar Organization predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/2026 season will increase by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons, while consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. It is expected that there will be a shortage of 2.92 million tons of global sugar in the 2024/2025 season [9]. - In India, the sugar - cane crushing season has fully started. The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories of India (NFCSF) reported that 325 sugar - cane crushing factories have started operation, compared with 144 in the same period last year. The sugar - cane crushing volume has reached 12.8 million tons, an increase from 9.1 million tons in the same period last year. The sugar production is 1.05 million tons, higher than 710,000 tons in the same period last year, and the average sugar yield is 8.2%, up from 7.8% in the same period last year [9]. 3.3数据概览 - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and trading and open - interest data of the top 20 seats of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract [11][14][17][20][23]