建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251125

1. Industry Information - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [2] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The spot egg market is expected to stabilize at a low level this week. The demand is expected to enter the peak season in December with double - holiday stocking expectations. The downward price should not be overly underestimated, while the upward space depends on market digestion and sales. The futures market is likely to bottom out and wait for the spot rebound signal. The longer the low - price period in the fourth quarter, the higher the probability and elasticity of a reversal in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. For options, consider the wide - straddle double - selling strategy for near - month contracts, and for spreads, conduct rolling reverse arbitrage operations on near - and far - month spreads [8] 4. Summary of Each Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The national egg price was stable today. The average price in the main production areas was 2.90 yuan/jin, with a change of 0.06 yuan/jin compared to yesterday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.17 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 01 contract rose 0.31%. The 2601 contract had a previous settlement price of 3200, an opening price of 3185, a high of 3232, a low of 3181, a closing price of 3210, a rise of 10, a rise rate of 0.31%, a trading volume of 255048, an open interest of 212297, and an open - interest change of 199106. The 2602 contract had a previous settlement price of 2981, an opening price of 2980, a high of 2998, a low of 2967, a closing price of 2990, a rise of 9, a rise rate of 0.30%, a trading volume of 47534, an open interest of 130493, and an open - interest change of 3811. The 2512 contract had a previous settlement price of 2954, an opening price of 2945, a high of 2969, a low of 2929, a closing price of 2950, a fall of 4, a fall rate of - 0.14%, a trading volume of 19014, an open interest of 27794, and an open - interest change of - 2299 [7] - Operation Suggestions: In the futures market, the main contract oscillated at a low level last week, and the direction was unclear. The 01 contract fell below 3200 points. Although it is close to the historical low, there are risks in going long. It is expected that the market will bottom out and wait for the spot rebound signal. For options, focus on the wide - straddle double - selling strategy for near - month contracts; for spreads, conduct rolling reverse arbitrage operations on near - and far - month spreads [8] 4.2 Industry News - Inventory: As of the end of October 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% compared to 1.368 billion at the end of September 2025, ending the previous continuous growth trend, but a year - on - year increase of 5.59% compared to 1.287 billion at the end of October 2024 [9] - Replenishment: In October 2025, the monthly output of laying - hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.15 million, slightly less than 39.2 million in September 2025 and significantly less than 44.83 million in the same period of 2024. The total replenishment from July to October 2025 was about 158.14 million, compared with about 176.1 million in the same period of 2024 [9][10] 4.3 Data Overview - Culling Volume: As of November 20, 2025, in the previous three weeks, the national culling volume of chickens was 19.81 million, 19.47 million, and 20.21 million respectively. The culling volume fluctuated recently but increased slightly compared to the previous period [19] - Culling Age: As of November 20, 2025, the average culling age of chickens was 492 days, 1 day earlier than last week and 7 days earlier than last month, indicating an accelerated culling speed [19]