建信期货原油日报-20251125

1. Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation has eased as the US is promoting an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and has drafted a peace framework. The sanctions on Russian oil by the US are about to take effect, and the proportion of Russian oil with unknown export destinations is rising rapidly, potentially reshaping the trade flow. With the geopolitical risks in the market easing recently and significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, the report suggests a bearish approach to crude oil, recommending shorting on rebounds or reverse arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: WTI's opening price was $58.80, closing at $57.98, with a high of $58.80, a low of $57.38, a decline of 1.73%, and a trading volume of 32.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $62.40, closing at $61.89, with a high of $62.47, a low of $61.26, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 41.05 million lots. SC's opening price was 449.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 447.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 449.5 yuan/barrel, a low of 442.5 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.13%, and a trading volume of 10.81 million lots [6]. - Operation Suggestions: Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds or engage in reverse arbitrage [6]. 3.2 Industry News - After US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russian Urals crude is being sold to Indian refiners at the lowest price in at least two years, at a discount of $7 per barrel to Brent spot prices (CIF). Most Indian refiners stopped ordering Russian crude after the sanctions, but some are now considering purchasing from non-sanctioned sellers due to the lower price, with only about one-fifth of the cargoes coming from non-blacklisted entities [7]. - The US is preparing a new round of actions related to Venezuela in the coming days [7]. - The US and Ukraine issued a joint statement stating that they have improved the Russia-Ukraine peace framework [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Wind, Bloomberg, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [9][10][17][21]