瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the short - term domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises are also expected to rise slightly. The cost side support has strengthened slightly, but high - premium offers and private price - holding strategies have difficulty attracting buyers. Last week, tire enterprises had insufficient orders, some arranged overhauls and some reduced production, dragging down tire capacity utilization. As the production scheduling of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the tire enterprises' capacity utilization may show a restorative increase this week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprise production control will continue to restrict the increase in capacity utilization. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 10,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 15 (units not specified), a decrease of 5; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was not specified in the change; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 68,735 tons, a decrease of 1,588 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions increased by 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 63.37 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.81 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 562.63 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.75 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 730 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 800 dollars/ton, an increase of 30 dollars/ton; the price of WTI crude oil was 58.84 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.78 dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in Shandong was 7,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, an increase of 0.38 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 72.53%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 54.26%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 70.05%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 62.25%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, a decrease of 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, a decrease of 8.57 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.24 days, an increase of 0.69 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.86 days, an increase of 0.5 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points month - on - month and 10.40 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. In October 2025, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons month - on - month and 24.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. As of November 19, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% [2]. 3.6 Key Points of Concern - There is no news today [2].