瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - For corn, the USDA report is slightly bearish, with higher - than - expected US corn yields adding supply pressure. In the domestic market, supply pressure is concentrated on deep - processing enterprises, and corn purchase prices are on the strong side. Corn futures prices are generally in a strong oscillation, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing the rise [2][3]. - For starch, although new - season corn supply is abundant, increasing supply - side pressure, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is fair, and enterprise sales are smooth. Corn starch futures prices have risen in tandem with the corn market recently [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the 22 - corn starch futures active contract is 2242 yuan/ton, the corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 21 yuan/ton, the futures open interest of the active contract for yellow corn is 41,320 lots, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 30,012 lots [2]. - Starch: The closing price of the corn starch futures active contract is 2556 yuan/ton, the corn - starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is 10 yuan/ton, the futures open interest of the active contract for corn starch is 254,397 lots, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch is - 159,995 lots [2]. - CBOT: The closing price of CBOT corn futures active contract is 437.25 cents/bushel, the total open interest of CBOT corn is 1,596,361 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 92,353 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price of corn is 2309.22 yuan/ton, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2560 yuan/ton, and the CIF price of imported corn is 2031.61 yuan/ton [2]. - Starch: The ex - factory prices of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2270 yuan/ton, 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 427.11 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, and 295 million hectares respectively, and the predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, and 44.3 million tons respectively [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports is 62.8 million tons, at northern ports is 134 million tons, and the monthly import volume is 6 million tons. The monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2957 million tons, the sample feed's corn inventory days are 26.23 days, the deep - processing corn consumption is 138.31 million tons, the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 69.45%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 60.89% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.72%, the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.4%, the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.59%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 9.59% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of November 20, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 93%, compared with 85% a week ago and 95% in the same period last year. The US corn export inspection volume for the week ending November 20, 2025, is 1,632,144 tons [2].