建信期货国债日报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. Monetary policy has begun to send signals of easing, and the bullish factors for the bond market are accumulating. However, it is difficult for the easing to materialize in the short term, and it is unlikely for the bond market to start a new round of rapid upward movement. It is still in the stage of oscillating and accumulating energy. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of laying out at low levels. In the short term, it is currently in a data vacuum period, and with important meetings in December approaching, the market is highly cautious. The bond market may show a slight recovery, mainly depending on the capital situation and risk - aversion sentiment. After the tax payment period this week, the capital situation may further ease, and the central bank's bond - buying may boost market sentiment. Coupled with the adjustment of risk assets, it is expected to boost risk - aversion sentiment [11][12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: After the tax payment period, the capital situation has loosened. With the short - term news being calm, the market may be waiting for policy guidance from the December meetings. Treasury bond futures showed narrow - range fluctuations across the board and closed slightly higher [8] - Interest Rate Bonds: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities showed narrow - range fluctuations. By 16:30 in the afternoon, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.813%, up 0.05bp [9] - Funding Market: After the impact of the tax payment period ended, the inter - bank capital situation loosened. There were 283 billion yuan of maturities in the open market today, and the central bank injected 538.7 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 255.7 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index dropped significantly, indicating a further alleviation of capital pressure. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated narrowly around 1.32%, the 7 - day rate rose 2.96bp to 1.47%, the medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.61% - 1.62% [10] 3.2 Industry News - Domestic News: The issuance of treasury bonds has entered a dense period. On November 24, the Ministry of Finance tendered and issued 97 billion yuan of book - entry coupon - bearing treasury bonds and 60 billion yuan of book - entry discounted treasury bonds. On November 26, two short - term treasury bonds will be issued. The Ministry of Finance will continue to pre - issue the new local government debt quota for 2026. As of November 23, the total scale of new special bonds issued by local governments this year has reached approximately 4.2315 trillion yuan, and the issuance progress of new special bonds has reached 96% [13] - International News: Multiple Federal Reserve officials have signaled interest rate cuts, and the market's bet on a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has exceeded 50%. The cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Hayasuna Sanae has approved the largest - scale additional expenditure since the pandemic, with a general account expenditure of 17.7 trillion yen (112 billion US dollars) and a total stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen [14] 3.3 Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The report presents data on treasury bond futures, including trading data such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume of different contracts on November 24, as well as information on the spread between main contracts of treasury bond futures across different maturities and varieties [6] - Money Market: The report mentions the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [29][33] - Derivatives Market: The report shows the average Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve and the average FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve [35]