建信期货集运指数日报-20251125

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core View - The SCFIS index increased by 20.7% week-on-week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected, but the shipping companies' price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's quotes were the most aggressive, suppressing the price increase space of other airlines. There is a possibility that other airlines will follow Maersk to cut prices to attract cargo. Considering that February is a traditional peak season, the market may carry out incentive games for the pre-Spring Festival shipping rush. The cost - performance ratio of short - selling is not high. Pay attention to the possibility that the April contract in the off - season may be overvalued and the positive spread opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The SCFIS index increased by 20.7% week - on - week to 1639.37 this week, better than expected. But shipping companies' price increase in December was less than expected. Maersk's quotes were aggressive, suppressing other airlines' price increase space, and other airlines may follow to cut prices. Consider the 02 - 04 positive spread opportunity [8] 2. Industry News - From November 17th to 21st, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, and the freight rates of ocean routes were adjusted with the composite index falling. The euro - zone's November consumer confidence index was lower than expected, and the European shipping demand lacked growth momentum with falling spot market booking prices. The Mediterranean route's supply - demand fundamentals were better with slightly rising freight rates. In the North American route, due to the US government shutdown, the employment market was weak and the freight rates continued to fall. There were also military conflicts in the Middle East that may affect the shipping market [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on November 24, 2025, was 1639.37, up 281.7 (20.7% week - on - week) from November 17th. The SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1107.85, down 130.57 (- 10.5% week - on - week) from November 17th [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on November 24th showed different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests for different contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc. [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - There were various shipping - related data charts including container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc [17][21]