沪铜产业日报-20251125

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly, with increased positions, spot premium, and weakened basis. The copper concentrate spot TC index remains at a low negative level, and the raw material supply is still tight. The supply of refined copper may converge, and downstream demand is temporarily weak. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis with a slightly converging red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,600 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,861 dollars/ton, up 88 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 0 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 199,582 lots, up 7,190 lots. The top 20 positions in Shanghai copper futures are - 27,472 lots, down 5,300 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,025 tons, down 2,900 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 43,816 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,610 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,595 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 31.5 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 10 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 24.88 dollars/ton, up 23.82 dollars. The monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons; the weekly TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars/kiloton [2] Upstream Situation - The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 76,510 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 77,210 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan. The weekly processing fee for crude copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly output of refined copper is 1.204 million tons, down 62,000 tons; the monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 58,990 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,800 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 下游及应用 - The monthly output of copper products is 2.004 million tons, down 228,000 tons. The cumulative monthly grid infrastructure investment is 482.4 billion yuan, up 44.593 billion yuan. The cumulative monthly real estate development investment is 7,356.27 billion yuan, up 585.699 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177 million pieces, down 194,236.1 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 13.57%, down 0.86%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.42%, up 0.03%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.14%, down 0.0053%; the at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.18, down 0.0271 [2] Industry News - Fed Governor Waller advocates a rate cut in December due to the weak labor market; San Francisco Fed President Daly supports a rate cut next month. As of the end of October, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity is 3.75 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology initiates the creation of national emerging industry development demonstration bases. In the first three quarters, China's full - industry outward direct investment increased by 4.4%. The central bank will conduct 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations on November 25, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan [2]