瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20251125

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall: The rapeseed - related market shows a complex situation with both supply - and demand - side factors influencing prices. The market is affected by international factors such as the performance of US soybeans, Canadian rapeseed policies, and the situation of palm oil, as well as domestic factors like Sino - Canadian trade negotiations and domestic demand [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Internationally, US soybeans are in the export season with sufficient supply and face competition from Brazil, but domestic consumption in the US is good and Chinese purchases support prices. Domestically, Sino - Canadian trade restricts imports, supply is tight, but demand is weak due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The price is under pressure and shows a volatile trend [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed oil market has a tightening supply due to the failure of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations on tariffs and the shutdown of oil mills. It is in a de - stocking mode, which supports prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its substitution advantage limit the demand for rapeseed oil. The price is affected by the decline of palm oil but may be stronger than palm oil in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9818 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2431 yuan/ton; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 642.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 12 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5442 yuan/ton [2]. - Spreads: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 26 yuan/ton; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) is 330 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - Positions: The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 7808 lots, and that of rapeseed meal is 9220 lots, down 13046 lots and 5347 lots respectively; the main contract positions of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are - 21536 lots and 355847 lots respectively, with the latter down 4625 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is - 8, and that of rapeseed meal is 3968, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10190 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2460 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10283.75 yuan/ton; the import cost of rapeseed is 7878.8 yuan/ton, up 33.1% [2]. - Ratios and Spreads: The oil - meal ratio is 4.02, down 0.03; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is - 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 372 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1690 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1820 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume for the month is - 11.53 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month is - 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal for the month is 22.06 tons, up 6.29 tons [2]. - Inventory and Operation: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is - 0.25 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is - 0.83 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.01 tons, down 0.19 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is - 3.6 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 22.66 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is - 0.33 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 23 tons, up 0.7 tons [2]. - Delivery Volume: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is - 0.15 tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 0.2 tons, down 0.1 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Consumption: The total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry for the month is - 171.7 billion yuan; the monthly output of feed is 5199 tons, up 690.4 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is - 67.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 21.08%, up 1.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 21.08%, up 1.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, up 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.14%, up 0.21% [2]. - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.82%, up 0.01%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.62%, down 0.14% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On November 24th, ICE rapeseed futures rose slightly supported by the strengthening of crude oil. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 3.10 Canadian dollars to 644.20 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 3.50 Canadian dollars to 657.20 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - US soybeans are in the export season with sufficient supply and face competition from Brazil, but domestic consumption in the US is good and Chinese purchases support prices. Sino - Canadian trade negotiations on rapeseed tariffs have not made a breakthrough, limiting imports [2]. - The Canadian government's bio - fuel production incentive plan uses rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan have reached an agreement to promote rapeseed exports to Pakistan [2]. - The US government is considering delaying the plan to cut bio - fuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined in November, increasing inventory pressure on the international oil market [2].