瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an investment view of "oscillating upward", advising attention to risk control [2] 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the HC2601 contract rebounded with reduced positions. Macroeconomic factors were positive, and the supply - demand situation showed that the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate rose to 80.73%. Downstream demand recovered, and inventory changed from increasing to decreasing. The relatively strong performance of major furnace materials supported the increase in futures prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were moving upward [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,309 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the position of the HC main contract was 999,741 lots, down 82,348 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 73,660 lots, down 16,779 lots. The HC1 - 5 contract spread was 10 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 203 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The HC main contract basis was 31 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangzhou was 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan was 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price difference between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,690 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 15,050.88 million tons, down 75.04 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 43.33 million tons, up 7.30 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 622.40 million tons, up 0.25 million tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 116.1 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.56%, down 0.26%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 316.01 million tons, up 2.35 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 80.73%, up 0.60%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 78.02 million tons, up 0.50 million tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 324.09 million tons, down 8.91 million tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 7,200 million tons, down 149 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 928.00 million tons, down 64.00 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.3587 million vehicles, up 0.0829 million vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles was 3.3221 million vehicles, up 0.0957 million vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.788 million units, down 1.3396 million units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.035 million units, down 0.7499 million units [2] Industry News - Shandong will focus on promoting the construction of projects such as the second - phase of the Shandong Steel Rizhao Base, aiming to cultivate about 3 steel enterprises with an annual output of over 10 million tons in about 2 years. In October, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars reached 2.25 million vehicles, with a year - on - year flat and a slight decrease of 0.5%, and a month - on - month flat and a slight increase of 0.3%. Among them, the retail sales of new - energy narrow - sense passenger cars for the whole month were 1.288 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.3% [2]