瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251125

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 25, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5636, down 0.18%. The inventory is rising rapidly, production is slightly falling from a high level, and inventory has been rising for 8 consecutive weeks. The import manganese ore port inventory at the raw material end increased by 33,000 tons. The iron - water demand is seasonally falling. The short - term direction is to be treated as a weak and oscillating operation [2]. - On November 25, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5448, down 0.58%. Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, prices are falling, and this period's inventory has decreased. The short - term direction is to be treated as a weak and oscillating operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,636 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,448 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - The SM futures contract positions were 716,427 lots, down 2,060 lots; the SF futures contract positions were 446,630 lots, up 10,344 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese - silicon were - 5,517 lots, up 2,709 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in ferrosilicon were - 17,283 lots, down 1,700 lots [2]. - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 62 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was - 16 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - The SM warehouse receipts were 21,189, up 392; the SF warehouse receipts were 10,841, up 1,802 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton; the price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,270 yuan/ton; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,130 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,220 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The weekly average of the manganese - silicon index was 5,515.75 yuan/ton, down 63.25 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 228 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the SM main contract basis was - 186 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The weekly manganese ore port inventory was 426.30 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly manganese - silicon enterprise start - up rate was 39.13%, down 0.46%; the weekly ferrosilicon enterprise start - up rate was 33.81%, down 1.03% [2]. - The weekly manganese - silicon supply was 196,910 tons, down 2,660 tons; the weekly ferrosilicon supply was 108,300 tons, down 800 tons [2]. - The semi - monthly manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 363,000 tons, up 13,500 tons; the semi - monthly ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 73,050 tons, down 8,310 tons [2]. - The monthly manganese - silicon inventory days of national steel mills was 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; the monthly ferrosilicon inventory days of national steel mills was 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types was 121,407 tons, up 2,818 tons; the weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19,543 tons, up 469.20 tons [2]. - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - The monthly crude steel output was 7,199.70 tons, down 149.31 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - UBS expects copper prices to rise next year due to supply shortages caused by continuous disruptions in mine production and strong long - term demand from electrification and clean - energy investments, with a target price of $13,000 in December 2026 [2]. - Hebei's "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of key industries, and improve the competitiveness of Hebei's steel in the global industrial division of labor [2]. 3.7 Profit and Market Pricing - For manganese - silicon, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 260 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 400 yuan/ton. The final November silicon - manganese pricing of HBIS Group was 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. - For ferrosilicon, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 240 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 470 yuan/ton. The November HBIS 75B ferrosilicon tender pricing was 5,680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous round [2].